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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Chris Kelades won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1490

Paddy HolohanvsChris KeladesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Chris Kelades won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Paddy Holohan wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Chris Kelades wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paddy Holohan at -500 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paddy Holohan has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paddy Holohan

Red Corner

Chris Kelades

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paddy Holohan

oldest →

SUBvs Joshua Sampo · Jul 14

vs Shane Howell · Jan 15

vs Vaughan Lee · Jul 15

SUBvs Louis Smolka · Oct 15

latest

Chris Kelades

oldest →

SUBvs Ray Borg · Feb 15

vs Chris Beal · Aug 15

vs Sergio Pettis · Apr 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paddy HolohanMetricChris Kelades

2.13

Strikes / min

2.40

2.81

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

46%

Strike defense

48%

2.88

TDs / 15 min

1.04

71%

Takedown defense

53%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68evenly matched on net striking-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paddy HolohanChris Kelades

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paddy Holohan(5 fights)Chris Kelades(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paddy HolohanTargetChris Kelades

By target zone

43% acc · 50%

Head

48% acc · 60%

71% acc · 19%

Body

88% acc · 30%

100% acc · 31%

Leg

83% acc · 10%

By position

50% acc · 65%

Distance

32% acc · 18%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

94% acc · 30%

89% acc · 31%

Ground

63% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paddy Holohan rounds

even

Chris Kelades rounds

Round 1Paddy Holohan edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns3

Control3:41

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Chris Kelades edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control2:37

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 3Chris Kelades edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:12

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 45

Sig Strikes

50 / 85

57%

Sig Str %

55.7%

55 / 76

Total Strikes

88 / 128

3 / 6

TDs

2 / 5

37.5%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

6:30

Ctrl Time

6:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Kelades	5 / 9	18 / 24	0 / 3	0
1	Paddy Holohan	10 / 15	22 / 29	3 / 4	0
2	Chris Kelades	32 / 46	44 / 59	1 / 1	1
2	Paddy Holohan	5 / 10	12 / 17	0 / 2	0
3	Chris Kelades	13 / 30	26 / 45	1 / 1	0
3	Paddy Holohan	11 / 20	21 / 30	0 / 0	0

Paddy Holohan

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Chris Kelades

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4