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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ovince Saint Preux won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1497

Elo1373

Ovince Saint PreuxvsPatrick CumminsUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · Saturday, April 18, 2015Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Ovince Saint Preux won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:54

Style matchupOvince Saint Preux: Well-roundedvsPatrick Cummins: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Patrick Cummins wins(74.2%)

Actual result: Ovince Saint Preux wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patrick Cummins at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ovince Saint Preux has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ovince Saint Preux (53.5%).
Ovince Saint Preux has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ovince Saint Preux

Red Corner

Patrick Cummins

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1497

Elo

1373

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

203.2 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ovince Saint Preux

oldest →

KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Mauricio Rua · May 22

KOvs Philipe Lins · Feb 23

vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Mar 24

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Oct 24

latest

Patrick CumminsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17

vs Gian Villante · Jul 17

vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18

KOvs Ed Herman · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ovince Saint PreuxMetricPatrick Cummins

3.03

Strikes / min

4.26

3.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

47%

Strike defense

55%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

4.49

67%

Takedown defense

28%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ovince Saint PreuxPatrick Cummins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ovince Saint Preux(10 fights)Patrick Cummins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +124.3|Blue -124.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ovince Saint PreuxTargetPatrick Cummins

By target zone

39% acc · 72%

Head

47% acc · 57%

63% acc · 28%

Body

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 36%

By position

34% acc · 61%

Distance

36% acc · 36%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 36%

100% acc · 39%

Ground

100% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ovince Saint Preux rounds

even

Patrick Cummins rounds

Round 1Ovince Saint Preux edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:48Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 41

Sig Strikes

14 / 23

43%

Sig Str %

60%

18 / 41

Total Strikes

15 / 27

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Patrick Cummins	14 / 23	15 / 27	1 / 3	0
1	Ovince Saint Preux	18 / 41	18 / 41	0 / 1	0

Ovince Saint Preux

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights28

Patrick Cummins

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights13