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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Nikita Krylov won · SUB R2

Elo1497

Elo1485

Ovince Saint PreuxvsNikita KrylovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, April 13, 2019Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Nikita Krylov won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:30

Style matchupOvince Saint Preux: Well-roundedvsNikita Krylov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nikita Krylov wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Nikita Krylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nikita Krylov at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nikita Krylov threatens submissions; Ovince Saint Preux has lost 31% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Ovince Saint Preux (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ovince Saint Preux

Red Corner

Nikita Krylov

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1497

Elo

1485

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ovince Saint Preux

oldest →

KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Mauricio Rua · May 22

KOvs Philipe Lins · Feb 23

vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Mar 24

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Oct 24

latest

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ovince Saint PreuxMetricNikita Krylov

3.03

Strikes / min

4.36

3.33

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

47%

Strike defense

47%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

2.05

67%

Takedown defense

53%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30Δ 2.07 — meaningful gap+1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ovince Saint PreuxNikita Krylov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ovince Saint Preux(10 fights)Nikita Krylov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.8|Blue -11.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ovince Saint PreuxTargetNikita Krylov

By target zone

50% acc · 75%

Head

56% acc · 56%

50% acc · 25%

Body

64% acc · 26%

Leg

83% acc · 19%

By position

40% acc · 50%

Distance

53% acc · 63%

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

75% acc · 22%

50% acc · 25%

Ground

100% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ovince Saint Preux rounds

even

Nikita Krylov rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns3

Control2:37

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 2Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:37

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 8

Sig Strikes

27 / 44

53%

Sig Str %

63.5%

8 / 12

Total Strikes

60 / 79

3 / 8

TDs

1 / 2

25%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:14

Ctrl Time

2:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nikita Krylov	14 / 27	33 / 48	0 / 1	1
1	Ovince Saint Preux	2 / 5	6 / 9	3 / 6	0
2	Nikita Krylov	13 / 17	27 / 31	1 / 1	1
2	Ovince Saint Preux	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 2	0

Ovince Saint Preux

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights28

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23