Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ovince Saint Preux won · SUB R2

Elo1497

Elo1506

Ovince Saint PreuxvsMarcos Rogerio de LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Saturday, April 22, 2017Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Ovince Saint Preux won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:11

Style matchupOvince Saint Preux: Well-roundedvsMarcos Rogerio de Lima: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Ovince Saint Preux wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Ovince Saint Preux wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ovince Saint Preux at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Ovince Saint Preux (53.5%).
Ovince Saint Preux has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ovince Saint Preux

Red Corner

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1497

Elo

1506

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

203.2 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ovince Saint Preux

oldest →

KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Mauricio Rua · May 22

KOvs Philipe Lins · Feb 23

vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Mar 24

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Oct 24

latest

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

oldest →

vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23

KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ovince Saint PreuxMetricMarcos Rogerio de Lima

3.03

Strikes / min

3.70

3.33

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

47%

Strike defense

51%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

1.40

67%

Takedown defense

59%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ovince Saint PreuxMarcos Rogerio de Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ovince Saint Preux(10 fights)Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.9|Blue +8.9

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ovince Saint PreuxTargetMarcos Rogerio de Lima

By target zone

47% acc · 71%

Head

25% acc · 18%

67% acc · 19%

Body

33% acc · 29%

67% acc · 10%

Leg

50% acc · 53%

By position

41% acc · 57%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

73% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ovince Saint Preux rounds

even

Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds

Round 1Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ovince Saint Preux edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:49

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 41

Sig Strikes

17 / 45

55.5%

Sig Str %

67%

30 / 50

Total Strikes

17 / 45

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:49

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	15 / 43	15 / 43	0 / 0	0
1	Ovince Saint Preux	11 / 27	11 / 27	0 / 1	0
2	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 0	0
2	Ovince Saint Preux	10 / 14	19 / 23	1 / 1	1

Ovince Saint Preux

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights28

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17