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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Dominick Reyes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1522

Ovince Saint PreuxvsDominick ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Saturday, October 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dominick Reyes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupOvince Saint Preux: Well-roundedvsDominick Reyes: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Ovince Saint Preux wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Dominick Reyes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ovince Saint Preux at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dominick Reyes has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ovince Saint Preux

Red Corner

Dominick Reyes

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1497

Elo

1522

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ovince Saint Preux

oldest →

KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Mauricio Rua · May 22

KOvs Philipe Lins · Feb 23

vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Mar 24

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Oct 24

latest

Dominick Reyes

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jun 24

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 24

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Apr 25

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Sep 25

DECvs Johnny Walker · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ovince Saint PreuxMetricDominick Reyes

3.03

Strikes / min

4.99

3.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.40

47%

Strike defense

49%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

0.25

67%

Takedown defense

82%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30Δ 1.89 — meaningful gap+1.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ovince Saint PreuxDominick Reyes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ovince Saint Preux(10 fights)Dominick Reyes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.9|Blue +24.9

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ovince Saint PreuxTargetDominick Reyes

By target zone

44% acc · 61%

Head

55% acc · 51%

75% acc · 24%

Body

75% acc · 22%

86% acc · 16%

Leg

93% acc · 27%

By position

54% acc · 97%

Distance

60% acc · 71%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

87% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ovince Saint Preux rounds

even

Dominick Reyes rounds

Round 1Dominick Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:01

52Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 2Dominick Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:06

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 3Dominick Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:26

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 71

Sig Strikes

94 / 142

54%

Sig Str %

63.3%

39 / 72

Total Strikes

101 / 150

1 / 9

TDs

0 / 2

6.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:33

Ctrl Time

1:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dominick Reyes	52 / 69	55 / 73	0 / 0
1	Ovince Saint Preux	8 / 15	8 / 15	1 / 5
2	Dominick Reyes	19 / 31	19 / 31	0 / 2
2	Ovince Saint Preux	13 / 22	14 / 23	0 / 3
3	Dominick Reyes	23 / 42	27 / 46	0 / 0
3	Ovince Saint Preux	17 / 34	17 / 34	0 / 1

Ovince Saint Preux

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights28

Dominick Reyes

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13