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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Oumar Sy won · SUB R1
Elo1500
Oumar Sy
Elo1482

Oumar SyvsTuco TokkosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · Saturday, May 18, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Oumar Sy won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:43

Style matchupOumar Sy: WrestlervsTuco Tokkos: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Oumar Sy wins(76.6%)

Actual result: Oumar Sy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tuco Tokkos threatens submissions; Oumar Sy has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Oumar Sy has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Oumar Sy has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Oumar Sy has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Oumar Sy
Red Corner
VS
Tuco Tokkos
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1500
Elo
1482
30
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'4"
210.82 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Oumar Sy
oldest →
W
vs Da Woon Jung · Sep 24
L
vs Alonzo Menifield · Jun 25
W
KOvs Brendson Ribeiro · Sep 25
L
SUBvs Ion Cutelaba · Mar 26
latest
Tuco Tokkos
oldest →
L
vs Navajo Stirling · Dec 24
W
SUBvs Junior Tafa · Jul 25
L
DECvs Ivan Erslan · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Oumar SyMetricTuco Tokkos
3.41
Strikes / min
2.12
1.87
Strikes absorbed / min
4.27
66%
Strike defense
46%
2.45
TDs / 15 min
4.21
66%
Takedown defense
33%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.54Δ 3.69 — meaningful gap-2.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes4.8 vs 3.3Takedowns3.2 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Oumar SyTuco Tokkos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Oumar Sy(5 fights)Tuco Tokkos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +18.0|Blue -18.0
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Oumar SyTargetTuco Tokkos

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
1
100% acc · 33%
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 67%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
3
75% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Oumar Sy rounds
0
even
0
Tuco Tokkos rounds
Round 1Oumar Sy edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns2
Control3:30
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 2
Sig Strikes
3 / 4
0%
Sig Str %
75%
1 / 8
Total Strikes
4 / 5
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
66%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:30
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tuco Tokkos3 / 44 / 50 / 00
1Oumar Sy0 / 21 / 82 / 31

Oumar Sy

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach83.0"
Fights5

Tuco Tokkos

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3