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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Ottman Azaitar won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1481

Elo1376

Ottman AzaitarvsTeemu PackalenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Saturday, September 7, 2019Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Ottman Azaitar won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:33

Style matchupOttman Azaitar: Pressure fightervsTeemu Packalen: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ottman Azaitar wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Ottman Azaitar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ottman Azaitar at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ottman Azaitar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ottman Azaitar is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Teemu Packalen has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Ottman Azaitar (52.9%).
Teemu Packalen has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ottman Azaitar

Red Corner

Teemu Packalen

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1481

Elo

1376

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ottman AzaitarL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khama Worthy · Sep 20

KOvs Matt Frevola · Nov 22

KOvs Francisco Prado · Jul 23

KOvs Michael Johnson · Dec 24

latest

Teemu Packalen

oldest →

vs Mickael Lebout · Jul 15

SUBvs Thibault Gouti · Feb 16

KOvs Marc Diakiese · Mar 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ottman AzaitarMetricTeemu Packalen

4.43

Strikes / min

2.57

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

52%

Strike defense

47%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.31

100%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.32Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap-1.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ottman AzaitarTeemu Packalen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ottman Azaitar(5 fights)Teemu Packalen(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +105.4|Blue -105.4

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +48.7|Blue -48.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ottman AzaitarTargetTeemu Packalen

By target zone

50% acc · 81%

Head

25% acc · 38%

33% acc · 7%

Body

83% acc · 63%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

0% acc

By position

45% acc · 67%

Distance

23% acc · 38%

73% acc · 30%

Clinch

83% acc · 63%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ottman Azaitar rounds

even

Teemu Packalen rounds

Round 1Ottman Azaitar edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:11

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 53

Sig Strikes

8 / 19

50%

Sig Str %

42%

27 / 53

Total Strikes

8 / 19

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:11

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Teemu Packalen	8 / 19	8 / 19	0 / 1	0
1	Ottman Azaitar	27 / 53	27 / 53	0 / 0	0

Ottman Azaitar

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5

Teemu Packalen

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4