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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Prado won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1481

Elo1452

Ottman AzaitarvsFrancisco PradoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Saturday, July 15, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Francisco Prado won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:05

Model Prediction: Francisco Prado wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Francisco Prado wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Prado at -112 American odds

+$89 profit

$189 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Prado enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Francisco Prado is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Ottman Azaitar has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Ottman Azaitar has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ottman Azaitar (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Ottman Azaitar

Red Corner

Francisco Prado

Blue Corner

-104

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-112

(53%)

1481

Elo

1452

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ottman AzaitarL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Teemu Packalen · Sep 19

KOvs Khama Worthy · Sep 20

KOvs Matt Frevola · Nov 22

KOvs Michael Johnson · Dec 24

latest

Francisco PradoL5 streak

oldest →

vs Jamie Mullarkey · Feb 23

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 24

vs Jake Matthews · Feb 25

vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Jul 25

DECvs Charles Radtke · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ottman AzaitarMetricFrancisco Prado

4.43

Strikes / min

3.68

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

4.31

52%

Strike defense

54%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.76

100%

Takedown defense

40%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.32evenly matched on net striking-0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ottman AzaitarFrancisco Prado

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ottman Azaitar(5 fights)Francisco Prado(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.3|Blue -29.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ottman AzaitarTargetFrancisco Prado

By target zone

30% acc · 43%

Head

67% acc · 82%

64% acc · 50%

Body

33% acc · 5%

50% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

43% acc · 86%

Distance

57% acc · 45%

40% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

77% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ottman Azaitar rounds

even

Francisco Prado rounds

Round 1Francisco Prado edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 33

Sig Strikes

38 / 57

42%

Sig Str %

66%

16 / 36

Total Strikes

42 / 61

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francisco Prado	38 / 57	42 / 61	0 / 3	0
1	Ottman Azaitar	14 / 33	16 / 36	0 / 0	0

Ottman Azaitar

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5

Francisco Prado

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5