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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Oskar Piechota won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1385

Elo1367

Oskar PiechotavsTim WilliamsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · Sunday, February 18, 2018Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Oskar Piechota won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:54

Model Prediction: Oskar Piechota wins(76.1%)

Actual result: Oskar Piechota wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Oskar Piechota at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Oskar Piechota enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Oskar Piechota is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Tim Williams has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Tim Williams has 62pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Oskar Piechota (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Oskar Piechota

Red Corner

Tim Williams

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1385

Elo

1367

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Oskar PiechotaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jonathan Wilson · Oct 17

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Jul 18

SUBvs Rodolfo Vieira · Aug 19

KOvs Punahele Soriano · Dec 19

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 20

latest

Tim Williams

oldest →

KOvs Eryk Anders · Aug 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Oskar PiechotaMetricTim Williams

3.30

Strikes / min

3.07

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

51%

Strike defense

48%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

1.81

38%

Takedown defense

100%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.63evenly matched on net striking-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Oskar PiechotaTim Williams

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Oskar Piechota(6 fights)Tim Williams(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.1|Blue -18.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Oskar PiechotaTargetTim Williams

By target zone

72% acc · 76%

Head

33% acc · 50%

100% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 12%

Leg

67% acc · 50%

By position

71% acc · 59%

Distance

44% acc · 100%

Clinch

88% acc · 41%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Oskar Piechota rounds

even

Tim Williams rounds

Round 1Oskar Piechota edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 22

Sig Strikes

8 / 18

77%

Sig Str %

44%

17 / 22

Total Strikes

8 / 18

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Williams	8 / 18	8 / 18	0 / 0	0
1	Oskar Piechota	17 / 22	17 / 22	0 / 0	0

Oskar Piechota

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Tim Williams

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights2