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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Urbina won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1496

Elo1482

Orion CoscevsGilbert UrbinaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · Saturday, May 20, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gilbert Urbina won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:55

Style matchupOrion Cosce: Well-roundedvsGilbert Urbina: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gilbert Urbina wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Gilbert Urbina wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Urbina at -124 American odds

+$81 profit

$181 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Urbina enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gilbert Urbina is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Orion Cosce has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Orion Cosce has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Orion Cosce (52.9%).
Gilbert Urbina has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Orion Cosce

Red Corner

Gilbert Urbina

Blue Corner

+106

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-124

(55%)

1496

Elo

1482

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Orion Cosce

oldest →

KOvs Phil Rowe · Jul 21

vs Blood Diamond · Jul 22

latest

Gilbert UrbinaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Bryan Battle · Aug 21

KOvs Charles Radtke · Feb 24

KOvs Uros Medic · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Orion CosceMetricGilbert Urbina

2.77

Strikes / min

5.57

4.02

Strikes absorbed / min

4.62

44%

Strike defense

44%

1.92

TDs / 15 min

2.86

61%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.25Δ 2.20 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Orion CosceGilbert Urbina

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Orion Cosce(3 fights)Gilbert Urbina(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.9|Blue -13.9

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -336.0|Blue +336.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Orion CosceTargetGilbert Urbina

By target zone

39% acc · 56%

Head

55% acc · 61%

60% acc · 19%

Body

75% acc · 24%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

80% acc · 16%

By position

48% acc · 88%

Distance

49% acc · 53%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

87% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Orion Cosce rounds

even

Gilbert Urbina rounds

Round 1Gilbert Urbina edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:05

34Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:06Control

Round 2Gilbert Urbina edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 32

Sig Strikes

51 / 82

48.5%

Sig Str %

60%

28 / 48

Total Strikes

100 / 139

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

3:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gilbert Urbina	34 / 47	83 / 104	2 / 2	1
1	Orion Cosce	10 / 18	22 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Gilbert Urbina	17 / 35	17 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Orion Cosce	6 / 14	6 / 14	0 / 0	0

Orion Cosce

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3

Gilbert Urbina

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4