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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Orion Cosce won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1472

Orion CoscevsBlood DiamondUFC Prediction Result

UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Saturday, July 30, 2022Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Orion Cosce won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupOrion Cosce: Well-roundedvsBlood Diamond: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Orion Cosce wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Orion Cosce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Orion Cosce at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Blood Diamond has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Orion Cosce

Red Corner

Blood Diamond

Blue Corner

-205

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1496

Elo

1472

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Orion CosceL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Phil Rowe · Jul 21

KOvs Gilbert Urbina · May 23

latest

Blood DiamondL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 22

vs Charles Radtke · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Orion CosceMetricBlood Diamond

2.77

Strikes / min

3.12

4.02

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

44%

Strike defense

48%

1.92

TDs / 15 min

0.00

61%

Takedown defense

73%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.25Δ 2.20 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Orion CosceBlood Diamond

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Orion Cosce(3 fights)Blood Diamond(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.9|Blue -23.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +196.0|Blue -196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Orion CosceTargetBlood Diamond

By target zone

37% acc · 56%

Head

51% acc · 44%

77% acc · 40%

Body

90% acc · 41%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

64% acc · 14%

By position

30% acc · 32%

Distance

57% acc · 54%

64% acc · 36%

Clinch

78% acc · 46%

73% acc · 32%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Orion Cosce rounds

even

Blood Diamond rounds

Round 1Blood Diamond edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control3:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Blood Diamond edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control2:20

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 3Orion Cosce edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control4:06

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 52

Sig Strikes

63 / 98

47.3%

Sig Str %

72%

77 / 107

Total Strikes

90 / 126

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

40%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:26

Ctrl Time

1:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Blood Diamond	20 / 28	23 / 31	0 / 0
1	Orion Cosce	8 / 15	18 / 25	1 / 5
2	Blood Diamond	33 / 59	50 / 76	0 / 1
2	Orion Cosce	12 / 25	21 / 34	0 / 1
3	Blood Diamond	10 / 11	17 / 19	0 / 0
3	Orion Cosce	5 / 12	38 / 48	2 / 2

Orion Cosce

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3

Blood Diamond

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3