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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Omari Akhmedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1499

Omari AkhmedovvsZak CummingsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Saturday, September 7, 2019Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Omari Akhmedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupOmari Akhmedov: WrestlervsZak Cummings: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Zak Cummings wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Omari Akhmedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zak Cummings at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zak Cummings enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Zak Cummings (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Omari Akhmedov

Red Corner

Zak Cummings

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1494

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Omari Akhmedov

oldest →

vs Tim Boetsch · Mar 19

vs Ian Heinisch · Dec 19

DECvs Chris Weidman · Aug 20

SUBvs Tom Breese · Jan 21

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 21

latest

Zak CummingsW4 streak

oldest →

vs Michel Prazeres · May 18

vs Trevor Smith · Dec 18

SUBvs Trevin Giles · May 19

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 20

KOvs Ed Herman · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Omari AkhmedovMetricZak Cummings

2.97

Strikes / min

2.96

2.84

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

55%

Strike defense

55%

2.58

TDs / 15 min

0.62

65%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Omari AkhmedovZak Cummings

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Omari Akhmedov(10 fights)Zak Cummings(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.5|Blue +5.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Omari AkhmedovTargetZak Cummings

By target zone

23% acc · 54%

Head

12% acc · 35%

50% acc · 19%

Body

29% acc · 12%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

82% acc · 53%

By position

31% acc · 81%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

63% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Omari Akhmedov rounds

even

Zak Cummings rounds

Round 1Omari Akhmedov edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:21

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Omari Akhmedov edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:14

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Omari Akhmedov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:04

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 77

Sig Strikes

17 / 69

32.7%

Sig Str %

26%

47 / 106

Total Strikes

24 / 76

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:39

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zak Cummings	6 / 17	8 / 19	0 / 0
1	Omari Akhmedov	5 / 22	10 / 30	1 / 1
2	Zak Cummings	7 / 24	11 / 28	0 / 0
2	Omari Akhmedov	13 / 27	19 / 37	0 / 0
3	Zak Cummings	4 / 28	5 / 29	0 / 0
3	Omari Akhmedov	8 / 28	18 / 39	1 / 2

Omari Akhmedov

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14

Zak Cummings

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14