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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Omari Akhmedov won · SUB

Elo1494

Elo1493

Omari AkhmedovvsTom BreeseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · Wednesday, January 20, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Omari Akhmedov won

SUB

Style matchupOmari Akhmedov: WrestlervsTom Breese: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Omari Akhmedov wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Omari Akhmedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Omari Akhmedov at +128 American odds

+$128 profit

$228 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Tom Breese (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Omari Akhmedov

Red Corner

Tom Breese

Blue Corner

+128

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-159

(61%)

1494

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Omari AkhmedovL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Boetsch · Mar 19

vs Zak Cummings · Sep 19

vs Ian Heinisch · Dec 19

DECvs Chris Weidman · Aug 20

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 21

latest

Tom Breese

oldest →

vs Keita Nakamura · Feb 16

vs Sean Strickland · Jun 16

KOvs Daniel Kelly · May 18

KOvs Brendan Allen · Feb 20

KOvs KB Bhullar · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Omari AkhmedovMetricTom Breese

2.97

Strikes / min

3.34

2.84

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

55%

Strike defense

60%

2.58

TDs / 15 min

0.00

65%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Omari AkhmedovTom Breese

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Omari Akhmedov(10 fights)Tom Breese(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Omari AkhmedovTargetTom Breese

By target zone

68% acc · 92%

Head

0% acc

33% acc · 4%

Body

50% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

57% acc · 16%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

68% acc · 84%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Omari Akhmedov rounds

even

Tom Breese rounds

Round 1Omari Akhmedov edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control3:32

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 2Omari Akhmedov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control1:02

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 38

Sig Strikes

1 / 4

82%

Sig Str %

16.5%

73 / 91

Total Strikes

6 / 12

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:34

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Breese	1 / 3	6 / 11	0 / 0	2
1	Omari Akhmedov	24 / 37	71 / 89	2 / 3	0
2	Tom Breese	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1
2	Omari Akhmedov	1 / 1	2 / 2	0 / 2	1

Omari Akhmedov

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14

Tom Breese

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8