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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sergio Moraes won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1494

Elo1378

Omari AkhmedovvsSergio MoraesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · Thursday, December 10, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sergio Moraes won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:18

Model Prediction: Sergio Moraes wins(70.7%)

Actual result: Sergio Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Moraes at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergio Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Omari Akhmedov

Red Corner

Sergio Moraes

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1494

Elo

1378

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Omari Akhmedov

oldest →

vs Zak Cummings · Sep 19

vs Ian Heinisch · Dec 19

DECvs Chris Weidman · Aug 20

SUBvs Tom Breese · Jan 21

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 21

latest

Sergio MoraesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Means · Feb 18

SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19

KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19

KOvs James Krause · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Omari AkhmedovMetricSergio Moraes

2.97

Strikes / min

2.42

2.84

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

55%

Strike defense

59%

2.58

TDs / 15 min

1.20

65%

Takedown defense

75%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Omari AkhmedovSergio Moraes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Omari Akhmedov(10 fights)Sergio Moraes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +115.8|Blue -115.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Omari AkhmedovTargetSergio Moraes

By target zone

20% acc · 49%

Head

30% acc · 81%

67% acc · 29%

Body

22% acc · 10%

53% acc · 23%

Leg

67% acc · 10%

By position

27% acc · 83%

Distance

29% acc · 90%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

67% acc · 11%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Omari Akhmedov rounds

even

Sergio Moraes rounds

Round 1Omari Akhmedov edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:32

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Omari Akhmedov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:19

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sergio Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 117

Sig Strikes

21 / 69

29.3%

Sig Str %

30%

38 / 120

Total Strikes

22 / 70

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:51

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sergio Moraes	7 / 23	8 / 24	0 / 1
1	Omari Akhmedov	15 / 37	18 / 40	0 / 0
2	Sergio Moraes	6 / 22	6 / 22	0 / 0
2	Omari Akhmedov	14 / 50	14 / 50	1 / 1
3	Sergio Moraes	8 / 24	8 / 24	0 / 1
3	Omari Akhmedov	6 / 30	6 / 30	0 / 0

Omari Akhmedov

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14

Sergio Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights13