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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Omari Akhmedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1354

Omari AkhmedovvsMats NilssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · Saturday, January 3, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Omari Akhmedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupOmari Akhmedov: WrestlervsMats Nilsson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mats Nilsson wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Omari Akhmedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mats Nilsson at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Omari Akhmedov has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Omari Akhmedov

Red Corner

Mats Nilsson

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1494

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Omari Akhmedov

oldest →

vs Zak Cummings · Sep 19

vs Ian Heinisch · Dec 19

DECvs Chris Weidman · Aug 20

SUBvs Tom Breese · Jan 21

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 21

latest

Mats Nilsson

oldest →

KOvs Luke Barnatt · Mar 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Omari AkhmedovMetricMats Nilsson

2.97

Strikes / min

2.99

2.84

Strikes absorbed / min

5.62

55%

Strike defense

63%

2.58

TDs / 15 min

3.87

65%

Takedown defense

44%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13Δ 2.76 — meaningful gap-2.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Omari AkhmedovMats Nilsson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Omari Akhmedov(10 fights)Mats Nilsson(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.7|Blue -139.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Omari AkhmedovTargetMats Nilsson

By target zone

30% acc · 75%

Head

24% acc · 58%

63% acc · 19%

Body

100% acc · 15%

80% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 27%

By position

27% acc · 61%

Distance

32% acc · 79%

53% acc · 13%

Clinch

67% acc · 18%

77% acc · 27%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Omari Akhmedov rounds

even

Mats Nilsson rounds

Round 1Omari Akhmedov edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns2

Control0:51

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 2Omari Akhmedov edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns3

Control2:46

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Mats Nilsson edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:02

9Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 184

Sig Strikes

33 / 92

33.7%

Sig Str %

35.7%

93 / 219

Total Strikes

55 / 115

5 / 9

TDs

5 / 6

50%

TD %

87.5%

Sub Att

Rev

4:39

Ctrl Time

2:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mats Nilsson	8 / 32	11 / 35	2 / 2	0
1	Omari Akhmedov	32 / 85	36 / 91	2 / 4	0
2	Mats Nilsson	16 / 38	32 / 54	0 / 0	0
2	Omari Akhmedov	20 / 62	38 / 84	3 / 3	0
3	Mats Nilsson	9 / 22	12 / 26	3 / 4	3
3	Omari Akhmedov	12 / 37	19 / 44	0 / 2	0

Omari Akhmedov

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14

Mats Nilsson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights2