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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Chris Weidman won · Decision R3

Elo1494

Elo1494

Omari AkhmedovvsChris WeidmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Saturday, August 8, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Weidman won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupOmari Akhmedov: WrestlervsChris Weidman: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chris Weidman wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Chris Weidman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Weidman at -141 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Weidman has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Omari Akhmedov

Red Corner

Chris Weidman

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-141

(59%)

1494

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Omari Akhmedov

oldest →

vs Tim Boetsch · Mar 19

vs Zak Cummings · Sep 19

vs Ian Heinisch · Dec 19

SUBvs Tom Breese · Jan 21

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 21

latest

Chris Weidman

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Oct 19

KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21

vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24

KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Omari AkhmedovMetricChris Weidman

2.97

Strikes / min

3.11

2.84

Strikes absorbed / min

3.37

55%

Strike defense

51%

2.58

TDs / 15 min

3.27

65%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Omari AkhmedovChris Weidman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Omari Akhmedov(10 fights)Chris Weidman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Recent Form

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -57.0|Blue +57.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Omari AkhmedovTargetChris Weidman

By target zone

31% acc · 76%

Head

50% acc · 86%

78% acc · 21%

Body

67% acc · 14%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

28% acc · 64%

Distance

40% acc · 59%

73% acc · 24%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

67% acc · 12%

Ground

92% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Omari Akhmedov rounds

even

Chris Weidman rounds

Round 1Chris Weidman edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:59Control

Round 2Omari Akhmedov edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns4

Control1:34

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 3Chris Weidman edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 91

Sig Strikes

29 / 56

38%

Sig Str %

54.7%

60 / 118

Total Strikes

67 / 98

4 / 8

TDs

5 / 16

28.5%

TD %

34.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:34

Ctrl Time

8:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Weidman	5 / 15	13 / 24	2 / 7
1	Omari Akhmedov	6 / 25	19 / 38	0 / 1
2	Chris Weidman	15 / 30	23 / 40	0 / 5
2	Omari Akhmedov	25 / 62	32 / 69	4 / 7
3	Chris Weidman	9 / 11	31 / 34	3 / 4
3	Omari Akhmedov	2 / 4	9 / 11	0 / 0

Omari Akhmedov

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights20