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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brad Tavares won · S-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1481

Omari AkhmedovvsBrad TavaresUFC Prediction Result

UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Saturday, July 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brad Tavares won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupOmari Akhmedov: WrestlervsBrad Tavares: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Omari Akhmedov wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Brad Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Omari Akhmedov at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Tavares has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Omari Akhmedov

Red Corner

Brad Tavares

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-162

(62%)

1494

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Omari Akhmedov

oldest →

vs Tim Boetsch · Mar 19

vs Zak Cummings · Sep 19

vs Ian Heinisch · Dec 19

DECvs Chris Weidman · Aug 20

SUBvs Tom Breese · Jan 21

latest

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Omari AkhmedovMetricBrad Tavares

2.97

Strikes / min

3.41

2.84

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

55%

Strike defense

54%

2.58

TDs / 15 min

0.70

65%

Takedown defense

80%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Omari AkhmedovBrad Tavares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Omari Akhmedov(10 fights)Brad Tavares(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.0|Blue -13.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +3.0|Blue -3.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Omari AkhmedovTargetBrad Tavares

By target zone

25% acc · 77%

Head

47% acc · 57%

63% acc · 10%

Body

67% acc · 14%

86% acc · 13%

Leg

83% acc · 29%

By position

29% acc · 96%

Distance

54% acc · 93%

33% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Omari Akhmedov rounds

even

Brad Tavares rounds

Round 1Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:05

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:37

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 166

Sig Strikes

84 / 150

28%

Sig Str %

57%

50 / 168

Total Strikes

88 / 155

2 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

19.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:42

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brad Tavares	22 / 39	22 / 39	0 / 0
1	Omari Akhmedov	11 / 43	11 / 43	1 / 4
2	Brad Tavares	24 / 38	27 / 41	0 / 0
2	Omari Akhmedov	17 / 56	19 / 58	1 / 3
3	Brad Tavares	38 / 73	39 / 75	0 / 0
3	Omari Akhmedov	20 / 67	20 / 67	0 / 2

Omari Akhmedov

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28