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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Cezar Ferreira won · U-DEC R3
Elo1363
Elo1374

Oluwale BamgbosevsCezar FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · Saturday, April 16, 2016Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Cezar Ferreira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Cezar Ferreira wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Cezar Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cezar Ferreira at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Oluwale Bamgbose is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Cezar Ferreira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Cezar Ferreira has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Oluwale Bamgbose (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Oluwale Bamgbose
Red Corner
VS
Cezar Ferreira
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
1363
Elo
1374
38
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'1"
198.12 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Oluwale BamgboseL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Aug 15
W
KOvs Daniel Sarafian · Feb 16
L
KOvs Paulo Costa · Jun 17
L
KOvs Alessio Di Chirico · Dec 17
latest
Cezar FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17
W
vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17
W
SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18
L
vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18
L
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Oluwale BamgboseMetricCezar Ferreira
2.45
Strikes / min
1.90
2.70
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
55%
Strike defense
53%
0.94
TDs / 15 min
2.69
37%
Takedown defense
84%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.25evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1511Strikes7.5 vs 14.7Takedowns0.0 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.14Form0.3 vs -0.5
Oluwale BamgboseCezar Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Oluwale Bamgbose(5 fights)Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -11.3|Blue +11.3
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -224.0|Blue +224.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Oluwale BamgboseTargetCezar Ferreira

By target zone

13
32% acc · 65%
Head
21
45% acc · 81%
3
60% acc · 15%
Body
1
25% acc · 4%
4
80% acc · 20%
Leg
4
57% acc · 15%

By position

12
33% acc · 60%
Distance
8
30% acc · 31%
0
Clinch
0
8
53% acc · 40%
Ground
18
58% acc · 69%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Oluwale Bamgbose rounds
0
even
2
Cezar Ferreira rounds
Round 1Oluwale Bamgbose edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:55
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:54Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Cezar Ferreira edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:09Control
Round 3Cezar Ferreira edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:46Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
20 / 51
Sig Strikes
26 / 58
30.3%
Sig Str %
42%
66 / 107
Total Strikes
62 / 99
0 / 0
TDs
3 / 5
—
TD %
66.7%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:55
Ctrl Time
6:49

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cezar Ferreira4 / 157 / 181 / 20
1Oluwale Bamgbose17 / 3823 / 460 / 00
2Cezar Ferreira14 / 2440 / 541 / 10
2Oluwale Bamgbose1 / 440 / 510 / 00
3Cezar Ferreira8 / 1915 / 271 / 20
3Oluwale Bamgbose2 / 93 / 100 / 00

Oluwale Bamgbose

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights5

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15