Lightweight

3 Rounds

Olivier Aubin-Mercier won · U-DEC R3

Elo1375

Elo1356

Olivier Aubin-MerciervsTony SimsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · Sunday, August 23, 2015Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Official fight result

Olivier Aubin-Mercier won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Olivier Aubin-Mercier at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier threatens submissions; Tony Sims has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Tony Sims has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Red Corner

Tony Sims

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1375

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Olivier Aubin-MercierL3 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17

KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18

vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18

vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19

latest

Tony Sims

oldest →

KOvs Steve Montgomery · Jun 15

SUBvs Abel Trujillo · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Olivier Aubin-MercierMetricTony Sims

2.48

Strikes / min

1.81

2.97

Strikes absorbed / min

0.76

55%

Strike defense

65%

2.36

TDs / 15 min

0.71

70%

Takedown defense

50%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Olivier Aubin-MercierTony Sims

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)Tony Sims(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.8|Blue -18.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Olivier Aubin-MercierTargetTony Sims

By target zone

0% acc

Head

79% acc · 96%

50% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 67%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 13%

Clinch

Ground

95% acc · 87%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier rounds

even

Tony Sims rounds

Round 1Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns2

Control4:32

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns4

Control4:04

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tony Sims edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control3:31

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 8

Sig Strikes

23 / 29

72%

Sig Str %

46%

76 / 95

Total Strikes

46 / 54

6 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

55.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:07

Ctrl Time

0:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tony Sims	0 / 0	5 / 6	0 / 0	0
1	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	1 / 1	21 / 22	2 / 2	0
2	Tony Sims	0 / 4	7 / 11	0 / 0	0
2	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	1 / 6	29 / 40	4 / 6	0
3	Tony Sims	23 / 25	34 / 37	0 / 0	1
3	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	1 / 1	26 / 33	0 / 2	0

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Tony Sims

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3