Lightweight

3 Rounds

Olivier Aubin-Mercier won · SUB R3

Elo1375

Elo1368

Olivier Aubin-MerciervsThibault GoutiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · Saturday, June 18, 2016Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Olivier Aubin-Mercier won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:28

Style matchupOlivier Aubin-Mercier: WrestlervsThibault Gouti: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(74.0%)

Actual result: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Olivier Aubin-Mercier at -470 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier threatens submissions; Thibault Gouti has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Olivier Aubin-Mercier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Red Corner

Thibault Gouti

Blue Corner

-470

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+375

(21%)

1375

Elo

1368

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Olivier Aubin-MercierL3 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17

KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18

vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18

vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19

latest

Thibault GoutiL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Teemu Packalen · Feb 16

KOvs Chad Laprise · Aug 16

KOvs Andrew Holbrook · Sep 17

vs Sage Northcutt · Feb 18

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Oct 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Olivier Aubin-MercierMetricThibault Gouti

2.48

Strikes / min

3.68

2.97

Strikes absorbed / min

5.64

55%

Strike defense

50%

2.36

TDs / 15 min

1.23

70%

Takedown defense

83%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap-1.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Olivier Aubin-MercierThibault Gouti

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)Thibault Gouti(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.4|Blue -6.4

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Olivier Aubin-MercierTargetThibault Gouti

By target zone

69% acc · 86%

Head

39% acc · 83%

100% acc · 14%

Body

60% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

63% acc · 50%

Distance

29% acc · 48%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

44% acc · 14%

91% acc · 48%

Ground

92% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier rounds

even

Thibault Gouti rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control2:16

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control3:06

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:12

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 61

Sig Strikes

29 / 69

80%

Sig Str %

26.3%

74 / 95

Total Strikes

63 / 105

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

52.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:34

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thibault Gouti	22 / 45	35 / 58	0 / 0	0
1	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	17 / 28	23 / 36	1 / 3	0
2	Thibault Gouti	7 / 22	28 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	24 / 30	40 / 46	1 / 4	0
3	Thibault Gouti	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0
3	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	3 / 3	11 / 13	1 / 1	1

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Thibault Gouti

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6