Lightweight

3 Rounds

Olivier Aubin-Mercier won · SUB R2

Elo1375

Elo1354

Olivier Aubin-MerciervsJake LindseyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Olivier Aubin-Mercier won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:22

Model Prediction: Jake Lindsey wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Lindsey at +450 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier threatens submissions; Jake Lindsey has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jake Lindsey (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Red Corner

Jake Lindsey

Blue Corner

-525

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1375

Elo

1354

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Olivier Aubin-MercierL3 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17

KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18

vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18

vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19

latest

Jake LindseyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jon Tuck · Jun 14

KOvs Joe Duffy · Mar 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Olivier Aubin-MercierMetricJake Lindsey

2.48

Strikes / min

3.44

2.97

Strikes absorbed / min

4.01

55%

Strike defense

46%

2.36

TDs / 15 min

0.65

70%

Takedown defense

50%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49evenly matched on net striking-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Olivier Aubin-MercierJake Lindsey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)Jake Lindsey(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.4|Blue -20.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +52.0|Blue -52.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Olivier Aubin-MercierTargetJake Lindsey

By target zone

58% acc · 71%

Head

14% acc · 13%

88% acc · 23%

Body

55% acc · 25%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

79% acc · 63%

By position

63% acc · 81%

Distance

43% acc · 79%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

67% acc · 17%

60% acc · 10%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier rounds

even

Jake Lindsey rounds

Round 1Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:45

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:22

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 48

Sig Strikes

24 / 52

64.5%

Sig Str %

46%

44 / 61

Total Strikes

82 / 111

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

41.5%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:07

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jake Lindsey	11 / 26	50 / 66	1 / 1	0
1	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	16 / 26	26 / 36	1 / 3	0
2	Jake Lindsey	13 / 26	32 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	15 / 22	18 / 25	1 / 2	1

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Jake Lindsey

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights3