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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Burns won · U-DEC R3

Elo1375

Elo1466

Olivier Aubin-MerciervsGilbert BurnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 8, 2018Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupOlivier Aubin-Mercier: WrestlervsGilbert Burns: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Olivier Aubin-Mercier at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Olivier Aubin-Mercier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Red Corner

Gilbert Burns

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1375

Elo

1466

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Olivier Aubin-MercierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 16

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17

KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18

vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19

latest

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Olivier Aubin-MercierMetricGilbert Burns

2.48

Strikes / min

3.16

2.97

Strikes absorbed / min

3.68

55%

Strike defense

52%

2.36

TDs / 15 min

2.04

70%

Takedown defense

53%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49evenly matched on net striking-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Olivier Aubin-MercierGilbert Burns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -90.9|Blue +90.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Olivier Aubin-MercierTargetGilbert Burns

By target zone

40% acc · 88%

Head

47% acc · 75%

63% acc · 13%

Body

94% acc · 21%

Leg

60% acc · 4%

By position

40% acc · 93%

Distance

39% acc · 49%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

79% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier rounds

even

Gilbert Burns rounds

Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:16Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:18

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:26

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 96

Sig Strikes

76 / 143

37%

Sig Str %

54.3%

42 / 98

Total Strikes

120 / 190

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:51

Ctrl Time

6:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gilbert Burns	24 / 34	39 / 49	1 / 3
1	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	3 / 12	3 / 12	0 / 0
2	Gilbert Burns	17 / 50	19 / 52	1 / 2
2	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	25 / 56	25 / 56	0 / 0
3	Gilbert Burns	35 / 59	62 / 89	1 / 2
3	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	12 / 28	14 / 30	0 / 0

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24