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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Olivier Aubin-Mercier won · SUB R2

Elo1375

Elo1514

Olivier Aubin-MerciervsDrew DoberUFC Prediction Result

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Saturday, December 10, 2016Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Olivier Aubin-Mercier won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:57

Style matchupOlivier Aubin-Mercier: WrestlervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(73.9%)

Actual result: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Olivier Aubin-Mercier at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier threatens submissions; Drew Dober has lost 36% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Red Corner

Drew Dober

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1375

Elo

1514

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Olivier Aubin-MercierL3 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17

KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18

vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18

vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19

latest

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Olivier Aubin-MercierMetricDrew Dober

2.48

Strikes / min

4.48

2.97

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

55%

Strike defense

53%

2.36

TDs / 15 min

0.61

70%

Takedown defense

58%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Olivier Aubin-MercierDrew Dober

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -139.0|Blue +139.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Olivier Aubin-MercierTargetDrew Dober

By target zone

48% acc · 78%

Head

20% acc · 38%

50% acc · 7%

Body

62% acc · 54%

80% acc · 15%

Leg

50% acc · 8%

By position

51% acc · 100%

Distance

25% acc · 63%

Clinch

Ground

75% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier rounds

even

Drew Dober rounds

Round 1Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control1:33

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:13Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 53

Sig Strikes

24 / 71

58%

Sig Str %

47.5%

30 / 56

Total Strikes

33 / 80

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:33

Ctrl Time

1:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Drew Dober	14 / 57	15 / 58	0 / 0	0
1	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	25 / 50	25 / 50	0 / 0	0
2	Drew Dober	10 / 14	18 / 22	0 / 0	0
2	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	2 / 3	5 / 6	0 / 0	1

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26