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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Diego Ferreira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1375

Elo1489

Olivier Aubin-MerciervsDiego FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · Saturday, January 30, 2016Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Diego Ferreira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupOlivier Aubin-Mercier: WrestlervsDiego Ferreira: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(84.7%)

Actual result: Diego Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Olivier Aubin-Mercier at -260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Olivier Aubin-Mercier (53.5%).
Diego Ferreira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Red Corner

Diego Ferreira

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1375

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Olivier Aubin-MercierL3 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17

KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18

vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18

vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19

latest

Diego FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24

vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Olivier Aubin-MercierMetricDiego Ferreira

2.48

Strikes / min

4.70

2.97

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

55%

Strike defense

55%

2.36

TDs / 15 min

0.82

70%

Takedown defense

57%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 1.73 — meaningful gap+1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Olivier Aubin-MercierDiego Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)Diego Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -114.0|Blue +114.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -141.0|Blue +141.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Olivier Aubin-MercierTargetDiego Ferreira

By target zone

50% acc · 80%

Head

38% acc · 71%

62% acc · 16%

Body

52% acc · 18%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

88% acc · 11%

By position

52% acc · 92%

Distance

40% acc · 85%

60% acc · 6%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

50% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier rounds

even

Diego Ferreira rounds

Round 1Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:09

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:27

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:20

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 93

Sig Strikes

65 / 152

50%

Sig Str %

43.7%

55 / 99

Total Strikes

130 / 226

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 5

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

4:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Diego Ferreira	19 / 51	23 / 55	0 / 1
1	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	16 / 32	22 / 38	0 / 0
2	Diego Ferreira	33 / 75	40 / 82	0 / 3
2	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	26 / 45	26 / 45	0 / 3
3	Diego Ferreira	13 / 26	67 / 89	0 / 1
3	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	7 / 16	7 / 16	1 / 2

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17