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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Olivier Aubin-Mercier won · SUB R3

Elo1375

Elo1490

Olivier Aubin-MerciervsDavid MichaudUFC Prediction Result

UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · Saturday, April 25, 2015Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Olivier Aubin-Mercier won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:35

Style matchupOlivier Aubin-Mercier: WrestlervsDavid Michaud: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: David Michaud wins(68.4%)

Actual result: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Michaud at +280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier threatens submissions; David Michaud has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Olivier Aubin-Mercier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Red Corner

David Michaud

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1375

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Olivier Aubin-MercierL3 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17

KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18

vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18

vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19

latest

David Michaud

oldest →

DECvs Li Jingliang · May 14

vs Garett Whiteley · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Olivier Aubin-MercierMetricDavid Michaud

2.48

Strikes / min

3.25

2.97

Strikes absorbed / min

4.45

55%

Strike defense

54%

2.36

TDs / 15 min

2.53

70%

Takedown defense

77%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49evenly matched on net striking-1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Olivier Aubin-MercierDavid Michaud

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)David Michaud(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -115.6|Blue +115.6

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Olivier Aubin-MercierTargetDavid Michaud

By target zone

40% acc · 45%

Head

30% acc · 82%

75% acc · 24%

Body

75% acc · 18%

100% acc · 31%

Leg

0% acc

By position

42% acc · 47%

Distance

28% acc · 71%

85% acc · 45%

Clinch

57% acc · 24%

80% acc · 8%

Ground

50% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier rounds

even

David Michaud rounds

Round 1Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control4:09

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:50

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:16

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 86

Sig Strikes

17 / 52

66.3%

Sig Str %

30.7%

82 / 127

Total Strikes

22 / 57

3 / 15

TDs

0 / 0

17.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:15

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	David Michaud	2 / 8	3 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	15 / 20	38 / 48	2 / 10	0
2	David Michaud	13 / 38	17 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	27 / 57	35 / 68	0 / 2	0
3	David Michaud	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0	0
3	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	7 / 9	9 / 11	1 / 3	1

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

David Michaud

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights3