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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Arman Tsarukyan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1375

Elo1531

Olivier Aubin-MerciervsArman TsarukyanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · Saturday, July 27, 2019Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Arman Tsarukyan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupOlivier Aubin-Mercier: WrestlervsArman Tsarukyan: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(56.7%)

Actual result: Arman Tsarukyan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Olivier Aubin-Mercier at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Olivier Aubin-Mercier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Red Corner

Arman Tsarukyan

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1375

Elo

1531

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Olivier Aubin-MercierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 16

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17

KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18

vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18

vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18

latest

Arman TsarukyanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Damir Ismagulov · Dec 22

KOvs Joaquim Silva · Jun 23

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Dec 23

vs Charles Oliveira · Apr 24

SUBvs Dan Hooker · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Olivier Aubin-MercierMetricArman Tsarukyan

2.48

Strikes / min

3.85

2.97

Strikes absorbed / min

1.80

55%

Strike defense

54%

2.36

TDs / 15 min

3.26

70%

Takedown defense

75%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 2.54 — meaningful gap+2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Olivier Aubin-MercierArman Tsarukyan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)Arman Tsarukyan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -156.1|Blue +156.1

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Olivier Aubin-MercierTargetArman Tsarukyan

By target zone

41% acc · 61%

Head

36% acc · 60%

67% acc · 35%

Body

61% acc · 23%

50% acc · 4%

Leg

80% acc · 17%

By position

41% acc · 74%

Distance

29% acc · 43%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

63% acc · 11%

83% acc · 22%

Ground

76% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier rounds

even

Arman Tsarukyan rounds

Round 1Arman Tsarukyan edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:35Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:33

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 3Arman Tsarukyan edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:28

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 48

Sig Strikes

47 / 105

53.3%

Sig Str %

47.3%

36 / 61

Total Strikes

110 / 174

0 / 3

TDs

2 / 11

TD %

9.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:01

Ctrl Time

7:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Arman Tsarukyan	12 / 25	24 / 41	2 / 7
1	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	4 / 7	4 / 7	0 / 0
2	Arman Tsarukyan	14 / 48	16 / 50	0 / 3
2	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	12 / 30	12 / 30	0 / 1
3	Arman Tsarukyan	21 / 32	70 / 83	0 / 1
3	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	7 / 11	20 / 24	0 / 2

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Arman Tsarukyan

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11