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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Ode Osbourne won · S-DEC R3
Elo1479
Ode Osbourne
Elo1507
Charles Johnson editorial illustration

Ode OsbournevsCharles JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Saturday, February 25, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ode Osbourne won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupOde Osbourne: Well-roundedvsCharles Johnson: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Charles Johnson wins(72.1%)

Actual result: Ode Osbourne wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Johnson at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Charles Johnson (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Ode Osbourne
Red Corner
VS
Charles Johnson
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
1479
Elo
1507
34
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
5'7"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ode OsbourneL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 24
L
vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · Sep 24
W
KOvs Luis Gurule · Apr 25
L
vs Steve Erceg · Aug 25
L
vs Alibi Idiris · Feb 26
latest
Charles Johnson
oldest →
L
vs Ramazan Temirov · Mar 25
W
KOvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Aug 25
L
KOvs Alex Perez · Jan 26
W
vs Bruno Silva · Mar 26
L
SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ode OsbourneMetricCharles Johnson
2.94
Strikes / min
4.77
3.24
Strikes absorbed / min
4.02
49%
Strike defense
55%
0.94
TDs / 15 min
0.51
66%
Takedown defense
69%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.30Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1498 vs 1517Strikes3.5 vs 4.8Takedowns1.3 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.50Form-0.0 vs 0.5
Ode OsbourneCharles Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601480150015201540← oldermost recent →
Ode Osbourne(10 fights)Charles Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -27.3|Blue +27.3
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +154.0|Blue -154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ode OsbourneTargetCharles Johnson

By target zone

17
15% acc · 35%
Head
28
36% acc · 47%
10
67% acc · 21%
Body
10
42% acc · 17%
21
72% acc · 44%
Leg
22
88% acc · 37%

By position

45
30% acc · 94%
Distance
42
42% acc · 70%
3
75% acc · 6%
Clinch
17
68% acc · 28%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Ode Osbourne rounds
2
even
1
Charles Johnson rounds
Round 1Charles Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:32Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control1:06
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:33Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns2
Control1:47
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
48 / 154
Sig Strikes
60 / 127
30%
Sig Str %
47.3%
50 / 157
Total Strikes
74 / 147
3 / 10
TDs
1 / 5
23.3%
TD %
25%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:53
Ctrl Time
1:18

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Charles Johnson21 / 3824 / 421 / 20
1Ode Osbourne23 / 6224 / 630 / 10
2Charles Johnson16 / 3920 / 480 / 30
2Ode Osbourne11 / 4812 / 501 / 50
3Charles Johnson23 / 5030 / 570 / 00
3Ode Osbourne14 / 4414 / 442 / 40

Ode Osbourne

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights11

Charles Johnson

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15