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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Asu Almabayev won · SUB R2

Elo1479

Elo1557

Ode OsbournevsAsu AlmabayevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · Saturday, August 5, 2023Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Asu Almabayev won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:11

Style matchupOde Osbourne: Well-roundedvsAsu Almabayev: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Asu Almabayev wins(65.9%)

Actual result: Asu Almabayev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Asu Almabayev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ode Osbourne has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ode Osbourne (53.5%).
Ode Osbourne has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ode Osbourne

Red Corner

Asu Almabayev

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1479

Elo

1557

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

185.42 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ode OsbourneL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 24

vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · Sep 24

KOvs Luis Gurule · Apr 25

vs Steve Erceg · Aug 25

vs Alibi Idiris · Feb 26

latest

Asu AlmabayevW3 streak

oldest →

vs Matheus Nicolau · Oct 24

KOvs Manel Kape · Mar 25

vs Jose Ochoa · Jul 25

SUBvs Alex Perez · Nov 25

SUBvs Charles Johnson · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ode OsbourneMetricAsu Almabayev

2.94

Strikes / min

2.31

3.24

Strikes absorbed / min

1.99

49%

Strike defense

53%

0.94

TDs / 15 min

4.46

66%

Takedown defense

44%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ode OsbourneAsu Almabayev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ode Osbourne(10 fights)Asu Almabayev(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -77.2|Blue +77.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ode OsbourneTargetAsu Almabayev

By target zone

25% acc · 100%

Head

55% acc · 65%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

18% acc · 75%

Distance

64% acc · 35%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

Ground

65% acc · 65%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ode Osbourne rounds

even

Asu Almabayev rounds

Round 1Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:21

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:23Control

Round 2Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 18

Sig Strikes

26 / 40

23.5%

Sig Str %

61%

8 / 22

Total Strikes

52 / 78

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 5

—

TD %

62.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

5:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Asu Almabayev	21 / 31	35 / 52	1 / 1	1
1	Ode Osbourne	3 / 8	6 / 11	0 / 0	0
2	Asu Almabayev	5 / 9	17 / 26	1 / 4	1
2	Ode Osbourne	1 / 10	2 / 11	0 / 0	0

Ode Osbourne

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Asu Almabayev

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8