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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alibi Idiris won · U-DEC R3

Elo1479

Elo1505

Ode OsbournevsAlibi IdirisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Saturday, February 21, 2026Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Alibi Idiris won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupOde Osbourne: Well-roundedvsAlibi Idiris: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alibi Idiris wins(69.1%)

Actual result: Alibi Idiris wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alibi Idiris at -142 American odds

+$70 profit

$170 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alibi Idiris has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Ode Osbourne (53.5%).
Ode Osbourne has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ode Osbourne

Red Corner

Alibi Idiris

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-142

(59%)

1479

Elo

1505

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

185.42 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ode Osbourne

oldest →

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Aug 23

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 24

vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · Sep 24

KOvs Luis Gurule · Apr 25

vs Steve Erceg · Aug 25

latest

Alibi Idiris

oldest →

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ode OsbourneMetricAlibi Idiris

2.94

Strikes / min

2.51

3.24

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

49%

Strike defense

60%

0.94

TDs / 15 min

3.25

66%

Takedown defense

66%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ode OsbourneAlibi Idiris

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ode Osbourne(10 fights)Alibi Idiris(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.8|Blue +25.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ode OsbourneTargetAlibi Idiris

By target zone

28% acc · 66%

Head

38% acc · 73%

73% acc · 34%

Body

20% acc · 3%

0% acc

Leg

58% acc · 23%

By position

32% acc · 84%

Distance

34% acc · 73%

83% acc · 16%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

Ground

86% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ode Osbourne rounds

even

Alibi Idiris rounds

Round 1Alibi Idiris edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:00Control

Round 2Alibi Idiris edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:15Control

Round 3Alibi Idiris edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:58

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 90

Sig Strikes

30 / 75

34.7%

Sig Str %

40%

48 / 107

Total Strikes

62 / 117

0 / 1

TDs

5 / 15

TD %

35.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:58

Ctrl Time

6:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alibi Idiris	12 / 30	19 / 37	1 / 6
1	Ode Osbourne	8 / 26	8 / 27	0 / 0
2	Alibi Idiris	7 / 23	19 / 41	2 / 5
2	Ode Osbourne	14 / 33	15 / 34	0 / 0
3	Alibi Idiris	11 / 22	24 / 39	2 / 4
3	Ode Osbourne	10 / 31	25 / 46	0 / 1

Ode Osbourne

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Alibi Idiris

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights2