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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Oban Elliott won · U-DEC R3
Elo1491
Oban Elliott editorial illustration
Elo1492

Oban ElliottvsVal WoodburnUFC Prediction Result

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Saturday, February 17, 2024Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Oban Elliott won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Oban Elliott wins(79.6%)

Actual result: Oban Elliott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Oban Elliott at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Oban Elliott has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Oban Elliott
Red Corner
VS
Val Woodburn
Blue Corner
-380
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+300
(25%)
1491
Elo
1492
28
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'8"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Oban ElliottL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Preston Parsons · Jul 24
W
KOvs Bassil Hafez · Nov 24
L
vs Seokhyeon Ko · Jun 25
L
SUBvs Jonathan Micallef · Jan 26
latest
Val Woodburn
oldest →
L
KOvs Bo Nickal · Jul 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Oban ElliottMetricVal Woodburn
3.62
Strikes / min
1.60
2.24
Strikes absorbed / min
4.93
61%
Strike defense
36%
1.52
TDs / 15 min
1.92
52%
Takedown defense
50%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.38Δ 4.71 — meaningful gap-3.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1482Strikes3.8 vs 1.6Takedowns2.7 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Oban ElliottVal Woodburn

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Oban Elliott(5 fights)Val Woodburn(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +49.8|Blue -49.8
Grappler Score
Red +49.5|Blue -49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Oban ElliottTargetVal Woodburn

By target zone

60
63% acc · 86%
Head
19
35% acc · 83%
7
64% acc · 10%
Body
2
50% acc · 9%
3
75% acc · 4%
Leg
2
100% acc · 9%

By position

33
51% acc · 47%
Distance
15
33% acc · 65%
3
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
5
50% acc · 22%
34
79% acc · 49%
Ground
3
60% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Oban Elliott rounds
0
even
0
Val Woodburn rounds
Round 1Oban Elliott edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control4:09
Knockdowns0
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Oban Elliott edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control2:40
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 3Oban Elliott edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control2:09
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:25Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
70 / 111
Sig Strikes
23 / 61
62.7%
Sig Str %
36.3%
136 / 188
Total Strikes
30 / 70
3 / 5
TDs
2 / 2
66.7%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
8:58
Ctrl Time
1:56

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Val Woodburn5 / 175 / 180 / 00
1Oban Elliott28 / 4051 / 661 / 20
2Val Woodburn6 / 206 / 201 / 10
2Oban Elliott23 / 4053 / 751 / 10
3Val Woodburn12 / 2419 / 321 / 10
3Oban Elliott19 / 3132 / 471 / 20

Oban Elliott

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights5

Val Woodburn

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2