Flyweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Hernandez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1489

Nyamjargal TumendemberelvsCarlos HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, November 23, 2024Macau, China

Official fight result

Carlos Hernandez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNyamjargal Tumendemberel: WrestlervsCarlos Hernandez: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nyamjargal Tumendemberel wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Carlos Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel at +102 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Hernandez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Red Corner

Carlos Hernandez

Blue Corner

+102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-122

(55%)

1510

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

oldest →

vs Cody Durden · Mar 26

latest

Carlos HernandezL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Allan Nascimento · Jan 23

vs Denys Bondar · Jun 23

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 23

vs Rei Tsuruya · Jun 24

SUBvs HyunSung Park · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nyamjargal TumendemberelMetricCarlos Hernandez

2.72

Strikes / min

3.83

2.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

53%

Strike defense

50%

3.37

TDs / 15 min

1.56

56%

Takedown defense

65%

2.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nyamjargal TumendemberelCarlos Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel(2 fights)Carlos Hernandez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.5|Blue -21.5

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nyamjargal TumendemberelTargetCarlos Hernandez

By target zone

22% acc · 69%

Head

31% acc · 59%

71% acc · 19%

Body

89% acc · 18%

75% acc · 12%

Leg

91% acc · 23%

By position

29% acc · 92%

Distance

43% acc · 91%

25% acc · 4%

Clinch

33% acc · 7%

20% acc · 4%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel rounds

even

Carlos Hernandez rounds

Round 1Nyamjargal Tumendemberel edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:52Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Carlos Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:06

12Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:52Control

Round 3Carlos Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:02

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 93

Sig Strikes

44 / 105

27%

Sig Str %

41.7%

28 / 95

Total Strikes

46 / 110

0 / 3

TDs

4 / 14

TD %

28.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

4:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carlos Hernandez	11 / 29	12 / 30	1 / 4	0
1	Nyamjargal Tumendemberel	12 / 26	13 / 27	0 / 2	1
2	Carlos Hernandez	12 / 26	13 / 29	3 / 5	0
2	Nyamjargal Tumendemberel	2 / 18	2 / 18	0 / 1	0
3	Carlos Hernandez	21 / 50	21 / 51	0 / 5	0
3	Nyamjargal Tumendemberel	12 / 49	13 / 50	0 / 0	0

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2

Carlos Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7