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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nurullo Aliev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1559

Elo1465

Nurullo AlievvsShem RockUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Saturday, November 22, 2025Doha, Qatar

Official fight result

Nurullo Aliev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNurullo Aliev: WrestlervsShem Rock: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nurullo Aliev wins(78.5%)

Actual result: Nurullo Aliev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nurullo Aliev at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nurullo Aliev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Shem Rock (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nurullo Aliev

Red Corner

Shem Rock

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1559

Elo

1465

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nurullo AlievW3 streak

oldest →

vs Rafael Alves · Feb 23

vs Joe Solecki · Jan 25

DECvs Mike Davis · Jul 26

latest

Shem Rock

oldest →

vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nurullo AlievMetricShem Rock

2.72

Strikes / min

3.03

1.63

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

58%

Strike defense

49%

2.12

TDs / 15 min

1.00

80%

Takedown defense

88%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.09Δ 2.46 — meaningful gap-1.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nurullo AlievShem Rock

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nurullo Aliev(4 fights)Shem Rock(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +93.7|Blue -93.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nurullo AlievTargetShem Rock

By target zone

38% acc · 73%

Head

17% acc · 20%

71% acc · 20%

Body

56% acc · 41%

67% acc · 8%

Leg

89% acc · 39%

By position

41% acc · 84%

Distance

41% acc · 91%

64% acc · 14%

Clinch

57% acc · 9%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nurullo Aliev rounds

even

Shem Rock rounds

Round 1Nurullo Aliev edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:30

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:23

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Shem Rock edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:51

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:32Control

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 117

Sig Strikes

44 / 104

43.3%

Sig Str %

41.3%

63 / 133

Total Strikes

77 / 141

1 / 5

TDs

1 / 9

11%

TD %

6.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:44

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shem Rock	12 / 29	13 / 31	0 / 2	0
1	Nurullo Aliev	28 / 53	29 / 56	0 / 1	0
2	Shem Rock	20 / 44	24 / 51	0 / 2	0
2	Nurullo Aliev	14 / 45	21 / 53	1 / 3	0
3	Shem Rock	12 / 31	40 / 59	1 / 5	0
3	Nurullo Aliev	9 / 19	13 / 24	0 / 1	1

Nurullo Aliev

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5

Shem Rock

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2