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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nurullo Aliev won · Decision R3

Elo1559

Elo1495

Nurullo AlievvsMike DavisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Saturday, July 25, 2026Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Nurullo Aliev won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Nurullo Aliev

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Nurullo Aliev at -149 American odds · hypothetical only

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Style matchupNurullo Aliev: WrestlervsMike Davis: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nurullo Aliev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Nurullo Aliev has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nurullo Aliev

Red Corner

Mike Davis

Blue Corner

-231

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+189

(35%)

1559

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nurullo AlievW3 streak

oldest →

vs Rafael Alves · Feb 23

vs Joe Solecki · Jan 25

vs Shem Rock · Nov 25

latest

Mike Davis

oldest →

vs Mason Jones · Jan 21

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Oct 22

SUBvs Natan Levy · Mar 24

vs Fares Ziam · Feb 25

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nurullo AlievMetricMike Davis

2.72

Strikes / min

4.73

1.63

Strikes absorbed / min

5.23

58%

Strike defense

54%

2.12

TDs / 15 min

2.40

80%

Takedown defense

60%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.09Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.50

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nurullo Aliev(4 fights)Mike Davis(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +64.0|Blue -64.0

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nurullo AlievTargetMike Davis

By target zone

40% acc · 92%

Head

39% acc · 41%

25% acc · 8%

Body

92% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

24% acc · 31%

Distance

39% acc · 41%

25% acc · 8%

Clinch

67% acc · 9%

62% acc · 62%

Ground

100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nurullo Aliev rounds

even

Mike Davis rounds

Round 1Nurullo Aliev edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns4

Control4:29

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Nurullo Aliev edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control4:09

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Nurullo Aliev edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns2

Control3:47

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 34

Sig Strikes

22 / 37

36.7%

Sig Str %

68.3%

81 / 106

Total Strikes

55 / 71

8 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

62%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:25

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Davis	5 / 5	16 / 17	0 / 0	1
1	Nurullo Aliev	2 / 4	18 / 21	4 / 5	0
2	Mike Davis	10 / 18	17 / 25	0 / 0	1
2	Nurullo Aliev	10 / 25	38 / 55	2 / 3	0
3	Mike Davis	7 / 14	22 / 29	0 / 0	0
3	Nurullo Aliev	1 / 5	25 / 30	2 / 5	1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Nurullo Aliev

Odds

-149

Market-implied probability

Nurullo Aliev 57%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Nurullo Aliev (model pick · research)$167

Mike Davis$222

57% market-implied · model 61% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at -149 · never rewritten

Nurullo Aliev

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5

Mike Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9