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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nurullo Aliev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1559

Elo1489

Nurullo AlievvsJoe SoleckiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Saturday, January 11, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nurullo Aliev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNurullo Aliev: WrestlervsJoe Solecki: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Nurullo Aliev wins(73.3%)

Actual result: Nurullo Aliev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nurullo Aliev at -720 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nurullo Aliev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Nurullo Aliev has 66pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nurullo Aliev

Red Corner

Joe Solecki

Blue Corner

-720

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+530

(16%)

1559

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nurullo AlievW3 streak

oldest →

vs Rafael Alves · Feb 23

vs Shem Rock · Nov 25

DECvs Mike Davis · Jul 26

latest

Joe SoleckiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jared Gordon · Oct 21

vs Alex Da Silva · Jun 22

SUBvs Carl Deaton · Feb 23

KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 23

vs Grant Dawson · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nurullo AlievMetricJoe Solecki

2.72

Strikes / min

1.97

1.63

Strikes absorbed / min

1.85

58%

Strike defense

50%

2.12

TDs / 15 min

2.06

80%

Takedown defense

14%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.09evenly matched on net striking+0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nurullo AlievJoe Solecki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nurullo Aliev(4 fights)Joe Solecki(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +69.2|Blue -69.2

Recent Form

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +462.0|Blue -462.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nurullo AlievTargetJoe Solecki

By target zone

36% acc · 83%

Head

40% acc · 86%

83% acc · 14%

Body

25% acc · 4%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

75% acc · 11%

By position

40% acc · 74%

Distance

40% acc · 93%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

38% acc · 23%

Ground

67% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nurullo Aliev rounds

even

Joe Solecki rounds

Round 1Nurullo Aliev edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control4:08

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nurullo Aliev edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control4:05

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 88

Sig Strikes

28 / 68

38.3%

Sig Str %

43%

81 / 150

Total Strikes

52 / 98

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

8:13

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joe Solecki	2 / 4	8 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Nurullo Aliev	2 / 5	17 / 28	1 / 1	0
2	Joe Solecki	5 / 13	14 / 22	0 / 0	1
2	Nurullo Aliev	9 / 29	35 / 60	1 / 1	0
3	Joe Solecki	21 / 51	30 / 66	1 / 1	0
3	Nurullo Aliev	24 / 54	29 / 62	0 / 0	0

Nurullo Aliev

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5

Joe Solecki

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9