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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Nursulton Ruziboev won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1544
Nursulton Ruziboev
Elo1467

Nursulton RuziboevvsSedriques DumasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Saturday, March 30, 2024Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Nursulton Ruziboev won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:18

Model Prediction: Nursulton Ruziboev wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Nursulton Ruziboev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nursulton Ruziboev at -258 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Nursulton Ruziboev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Sedriques Dumas enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Nursulton Ruziboev
Red Corner
VS
Sedriques Dumas
Blue Corner
-258
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
1544
Elo
1467
32
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'2"
193.04 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nursulton RuziboevW3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jul 23
L
vs Joaquin Buckley · May 24
W
KOvs Eric McConico · Feb 25
W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · May 25
W
SUBvs Andrey Pulyaev · Jun 26
latest
Sedriques DumasL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Denis Tiuliulin · Aug 24
L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Apr 25
L
vs Zach Reese · Sep 25
L
SUBvs Donte Johnson · Nov 25
L
SUBvs Jackson McVey · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nursulton RuziboevMetricSedriques Dumas
2.59
Strikes / min
1.97
2.89
Strikes absorbed / min
2.64
48%
Strike defense
53%
0.75
TDs / 15 min
1.30
33%
Takedown defense
33%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.30evenly matched on net striking-0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1517Strikes2.5 vs 2.1Takedowns0.8 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.30Form1.0 vs 0.5
Nursulton RuziboevSedriques Dumas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501478150515331560← oldermost recent →
Nursulton Ruziboev(6 fights)Sedriques Dumas(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +76.7|Blue -76.7
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nursulton RuziboevTargetSedriques Dumas

By target zone

11
37% acc · 92%
Head
1
8% acc · 100%
1
50% acc · 8%
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

11
44% acc · 92%
Distance
1
6% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
14% acc · 8%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Nursulton Ruziboev rounds
0
even
0
Sedriques Dumas rounds
Round 1Nursulton Ruziboev edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
12 / 32
Sig Strikes
1 / 16
37%
Sig Str %
6%
12 / 32
Total Strikes
1 / 16
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Sedriques Dumas1 / 161 / 160 / 00
1Nursulton Ruziboev12 / 3212 / 320 / 00

Nursulton Ruziboev

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights7

Sedriques Dumas

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights9