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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Norman Parke won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1355

Norman ParkevsNaoyuki KotaniUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · Saturday, July 19, 2014Dublin, Leinster, Ireland

Official fight result

Norman Parke won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:41

Model Prediction: Norman Parke wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Norman Parke wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Norman Parke at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Norman Parke has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Norman Parke has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Norman Parke has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Norman Parke

Red Corner

Naoyuki Kotani

Blue Corner

-460

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+410

(20%)

1490

Elo

1355

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Norman Parke

oldest →

vs Jon Tuck · Oct 13

vs Gleison Tibau · Jan 15

vs Francisco Trinaldo · May 15

vs Reza Madadi · Oct 15

vs Rustam Khabilov · Feb 16

latest

Naoyuki KotaniL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Yan Cabral · Oct 14

vs Kajan Johnson · Sep 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Norman ParkeMetricNaoyuki Kotani

3.06

Strikes / min

1.02

2.88

Strikes absorbed / min

2.89

64%

Strike defense

50%

1.98

TDs / 15 min

0.83

77%

Takedown defense

46%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18Δ 2.05 — meaningful gap-1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Norman ParkeNaoyuki Kotani

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Norman Parke(8 fights)Naoyuki Kotani(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.1|Blue -135.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -47.9|Blue +47.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Norman ParkeTargetNaoyuki Kotani

By target zone

37% acc · 74%

Head

19% acc · 63%

71% acc · 15%

Body

33% acc · 13%

50% acc · 12%

Leg

33% acc · 25%

By position

19% acc · 15%

Distance

22% acc · 88%

56% acc · 15%

Clinch

33% acc · 13%

51% acc · 71%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Norman Parke rounds

even

Naoyuki Kotani rounds

Round 1Norman Parke edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:45

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 2Norman Parke edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control2:49

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 83

Sig Strikes

8 / 35

40.5%

Sig Str %

23.5%

41 / 91

Total Strikes

16 / 43

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 7

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:34

Ctrl Time

1:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Naoyuki Kotani	6 / 27	10 / 31	0 / 6
1	Norman Parke	17 / 40	19 / 43	0 / 0
2	Naoyuki Kotani	2 / 8	6 / 12	0 / 1
2	Norman Parke	17 / 43	22 / 48	2 / 2

Norman Parke

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8

Naoyuki Kotani

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3