← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gleison Tibau won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1366

Norman ParkevsGleison TibauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · Sunday, January 18, 2015Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Gleison Tibau won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNorman Parke: Well-roundedvsGleison Tibau: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Norman Parke wins(56.4%)

Actual result: Gleison Tibau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Norman Parke at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gleison Tibau has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Norman Parke

Red Corner

Gleison Tibau

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1490

Elo

1366

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Norman Parke

oldest →

vs Jon Tuck · Oct 13

KOvs Naoyuki Kotani · Jul 14

vs Francisco Trinaldo · May 15

vs Reza Madadi · Oct 15

vs Rustam Khabilov · Feb 16

latest

Gleison TibauL4 streak

oldest →

vs Piotr Hallmann · Sep 14

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15

vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18

vs Desmond Green · Jun 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Norman ParkeMetricGleison Tibau

3.06

Strikes / min

1.95

2.88

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

64%

Strike defense

63%

1.98

TDs / 15 min

4.08

77%

Takedown defense

92%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Norman ParkeGleison Tibau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Norman Parke(8 fights)Gleison Tibau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +124.8|Blue -124.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Norman ParkeTargetGleison Tibau

By target zone

22% acc · 51%

Head

20% acc · 55%

52% acc · 28%

Body

70% acc · 18%

50% acc · 21%

Leg

91% acc · 26%

By position

25% acc · 72%

Distance

23% acc · 68%

71% acc · 28%

Clinch

92% acc · 32%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Norman Parke rounds

even

Gleison Tibau rounds

Round 1Norman Parke edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:03

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:30

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:57Control

Round 3Norman Parke edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:35

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 140

Sig Strikes

38 / 127

28.3%

Sig Str %

30.7%

44 / 141

Total Strikes

38 / 127

0 / 10

TDs

2 / 6

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

1:08

Ctrl Time

2:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gleison Tibau	11 / 52	11 / 52	0 / 1
1	Norman Parke	15 / 49	15 / 49	0 / 2
2	Gleison Tibau	13 / 37	13 / 37	2 / 3
2	Norman Parke	6 / 29	7 / 30	0 / 2
3	Gleison Tibau	14 / 38	14 / 38	0 / 2
3	Norman Parke	22 / 62	22 / 62	0 / 6

Norman Parke

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18