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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Vaughan Lee won · SUB R1

Elo1351

Elo1355

Norifumi YamamotovsVaughan LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · Saturday, February 25, 2012Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Vaughan Lee won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:29

Model Prediction: Vaughan Lee wins(83.9%)

Actual result: Vaughan Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vaughan Lee at +260 American odds

+$260 profit

$360 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vaughan Lee has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Vaughan Lee has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Norifumi Yamamoto (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Norifumi Yamamoto

Red Corner

Vaughan Lee

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1351

Elo

1355

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Norifumi YamamotoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Demetrious Johnson · Feb 11

vs Darren Uyenoyama · Nov 11

latest

Vaughan LeeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Motonobu Tezuka · Feb 13

SUBvs Raphael Assuncao · Jun 13

vs Nam Phan · Mar 14

KOvs Iuri Alcantara · May 14

vs Paddy Holohan · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Norifumi YamamotoMetricVaughan Lee

2.09

Strikes / min

3.47

2.01

Strikes absorbed / min

2.07

57%

Strike defense

70%

0.41

TDs / 15 min

0.81

45%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.08Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Norifumi YamamotoVaughan Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Norifumi Yamamoto(3 fights)Vaughan Lee(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.6|Blue +3.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Norifumi YamamotoTargetVaughan Lee

By target zone

42% acc · 90%

Head

38% acc · 64%

50% acc · 10%

Body

80% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

43% acc · 81%

Distance

32% acc · 50%

44% acc · 19%

Clinch

88% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Norifumi Yamamoto rounds

even

Vaughan Lee rounds

Round 1Norifumi Yamamoto edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:40

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 49

Sig Strikes

14 / 30

42%

Sig Str %

46%

21 / 49

Total Strikes

32 / 48

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vaughan Lee	14 / 30	32 / 48	0 / 1	2
1	Norifumi Yamamoto	21 / 49	21 / 49	1 / 2	0

Norifumi Yamamoto

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3

Vaughan Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights8