← All fights/Event page

Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Nora Cornolle won · SUB R2

Elo1489

Elo1454

Nora CornollevsHailey CowanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Saturday, April 12, 2025Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Nora Cornolle won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:52

Model Prediction: Nora Cornolle wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Nora Cornolle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nora Cornolle at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nora Cornolle enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nora Cornolle has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Hailey Cowan has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Hailey Cowan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nora Cornolle

Red Corner

Hailey Cowan

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1489

Elo

1454

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nora CornolleL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joselyne Edwards · Sep 23

KOvs Melissa Mullins · Apr 24

vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · Sep 24

vs Karol Rosa · Aug 25

SUBvs Joselyne Edwards · Feb 26

latest

Hailey CowanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Apr 23

KOvs Alice Pereira · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nora CornolleMetricHailey Cowan

2.73

Strikes / min

2.66

2.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.92

56%

Strike defense

40%

0.22

TDs / 15 min

1.95

47%

Takedown defense

80%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.69evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nora CornolleHailey Cowan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nora Cornolle(6 fights)Hailey Cowan(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.1|Blue -35.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -518.0|Blue +518.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nora CornolleTargetHailey Cowan

By target zone

56% acc · 63%

Head

33% acc · 67%

100% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 33%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

56% acc · 63%

Distance

33% acc · 67%

100% acc · 38%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nora Cornolle rounds

even

Hailey Cowan rounds

Round 1Hailey Cowan edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:14

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:24Control

Round 2Nora Cornolle edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:19

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 12

Sig Strikes

3 / 7

65.5%

Sig Str %

45.5%

24 / 32

Total Strikes

19 / 28

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:33

Ctrl Time

4:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hailey Cowan	2 / 3	17 / 23	1 / 1	0
1	Nora Cornolle	3 / 5	18 / 23	0 / 0	0
2	Hailey Cowan	1 / 4	2 / 5	0 / 1	0
2	Nora Cornolle	5 / 7	6 / 9	0 / 0	1

Nora Cornolle

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6

Hailey Cowan

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4