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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Yao Zhikui won · S-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1359

Nolan TicmanvsYao ZhikuiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · Saturday, May 16, 2015Manila, Philippines

Official fight result

Yao Zhikui won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Yao Zhikui wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Yao Zhikui wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yao Zhikui at +230 American odds

+$230 profit

$330 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yao Zhikui enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nolan Ticman has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Nolan Ticman has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nolan Ticman

Red Corner

Yao Zhikui

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1355

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nolan Ticman

oldest →

vs Frankie Saenz · Aug 14

latest

Yao ZhikuiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Royston Wee · Aug 14

KOvs Fredy Serrano · Nov 15

vs Jenel Lausa · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nolan TicmanMetricYao Zhikui

2.57

Strikes / min

1.44

2.53

Strikes absorbed / min

2.82

67%

Strike defense

48%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.66

60%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.04Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap-1.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nolan TicmanYao Zhikui

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nolan Ticman(2 fights)Yao Zhikui(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.9|Blue +3.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nolan TicmanTargetYao Zhikui

By target zone

33% acc · 46%

Head

7% acc · 78%

50% acc · 12%

Body

33% acc · 11%

92% acc · 42%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

27% acc · 38%

Distance

6% acc · 67%

89% acc · 48%

Clinch

38% acc · 33%

88% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nolan Ticman rounds

even

Yao Zhikui rounds

Round 1Nolan Ticman edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3Nolan Ticman edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control1:38

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 109

Sig Strikes

9 / 108

42.3%

Sig Str %

7.3%

52 / 109

Total Strikes

12 / 112

0 / 5

TDs

1 / 6

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:38

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yao Zhikui	3 / 47	3 / 47	0 / 1
1	Nolan Ticman	9 / 33	9 / 33	0 / 1
2	Yao Zhikui	5 / 39	5 / 39	0 / 3
2	Nolan Ticman	8 / 27	8 / 27	0 / 1
3	Yao Zhikui	1 / 22	4 / 26	1 / 2
3	Nolan Ticman	35 / 49	35 / 49	0 / 3

Nolan Ticman

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Yao Zhikui

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights4