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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Frankie Saenz won · U-DEC R3
Elo1355
Nolan Ticman
Elo1387

Nolan TicmanvsFrankie SaenzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 16, 2014Bangor, Maine, USA

Official fight result

Frankie Saenz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Frankie Saenz wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Frankie Saenz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Saenz at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Nolan Ticman has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Nolan Ticman
Red Corner
VS
Frankie Saenz
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1355
Elo
1387
38
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
175.26 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nolan Ticman
oldest →
L
vs Yao Zhikui · May 15
latest
Frankie SaenzL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Augusto Mendes · Jan 17
W
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 17
W
vs Henry Briones · May 18
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 19
L
KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Aug 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nolan TicmanMetricFrankie Saenz
2.57
Strikes / min
3.94
2.53
Strikes absorbed / min
3.50
67%
Strike defense
52%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.74
60%
Takedown defense
61%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.04evenly matched on net striking+0.44
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Nolan Ticman(2 fights)Frankie Saenz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -32.4|Blue +32.4
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nolan TicmanTargetFrankie Saenz

By target zone

13
33% acc · 52%
Head
31
37% acc · 46%
9
82% acc · 36%
Body
9
56% acc · 13%
3
100% acc · 12%
Leg
27
90% acc · 40%

By position

22
47% acc · 88%
Distance
24
34% acc · 36%
1
50% acc · 4%
Clinch
39
80% acc · 58%
2
50% acc · 8%
Ground
4
44% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Nolan Ticman rounds
0
even
3
Frankie Saenz rounds
Round 1Frankie Saenz edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:28Control
Round 2Frankie Saenz edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:39Control
Round 3Frankie Saenz edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:18
26Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:38Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
25 / 53
Sig Strikes
67 / 129
38.7%
Sig Str %
50.7%
31 / 59
Total Strikes
83 / 153
0 / 0
TDs
5 / 9
—
TD %
66.7%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:18
Ctrl Time
5:45

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Frankie Saenz14 / 3916 / 431 / 10
1Nolan Ticman15 / 2618 / 290 / 00
2Frankie Saenz27 / 4832 / 561 / 40
2Nolan Ticman9 / 199 / 190 / 00
3Frankie Saenz26 / 4235 / 543 / 40
3Nolan Ticman1 / 84 / 110 / 00

Nolan Ticman

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach—
Fights2

Frankie Saenz

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights10