Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Austin Vanderford won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1492

Elo1495

Nikolay VeretennikovvsAustin VanderfordUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Saturday, February 22, 2025Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Austin Vanderford won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:13

Style matchupNikolay Veretennikov: Well-roundedvsAustin Vanderford: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Austin Vanderford wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Austin Vanderford wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Austin Vanderford at +102 American odds

+$102 profit

$202 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Austin Vanderford is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Nikolay Veretennikov has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Austin Vanderford has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nikolay Veretennikov

Red Corner

Austin Vanderford

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+102

(50%)

1492

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikolay Veretennikov

oldest →

vs Danny Barlow · Aug 24

vs Francisco Prado · Jul 25

vs Punahele Soriano · Oct 25

KOvs Niko Price · Feb 26

KOvs Khaos Williams · May 26

latest

Austin Vanderford

oldest →

SUBvs Ramiz Brahimaj · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikolay VeretennikovMetricAustin Vanderford

2.69

Strikes / min

3.04

3.30

Strikes absorbed / min

2.71

45%

Strike defense

48%

0.42

TDs / 15 min

3.08

62%

Takedown defense

100%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.61evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nikolay VeretennikovAustin Vanderford

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nikolay Veretennikov(6 fights)Austin Vanderford(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.6|Blue +2.6

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikolay VeretennikovTargetAustin Vanderford

By target zone

0% acc

Head

74% acc · 95%

60% acc · 60%

Body

100% acc · 3%

100% acc · 40%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

26% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 8%

Clinch

Ground

82% acc · 92%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nikolay Veretennikov rounds

even

Austin Vanderford rounds

Round 1Austin Vanderford edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:56Control

Round 2Austin Vanderford edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 19

Sig Strikes

39 / 52

28%

Sig Str %

73.5%

21 / 36

Total Strikes

102 / 121

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 4

—

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

7:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Austin Vanderford	8 / 11	56 / 62	1 / 1	1
1	Nikolay Veretennikov	3 / 13	12 / 23	0 / 0	0
2	Austin Vanderford	31 / 41	46 / 59	1 / 3	0
2	Nikolay Veretennikov	2 / 6	9 / 13	0 / 0	0

Nikolay Veretennikov

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Austin Vanderford

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2