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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nikolas Motta won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1502

Elo1562

Nikolas MottavsTom NolanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Saturday, January 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nikolas Motta won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:03

Style matchupNikolas Motta: Pressure fightervsTom Nolan: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Tom Nolan wins(74.6%)

Actual result: Nikolas Motta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Nolan at -360 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Nolan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Tom Nolan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nikolas Motta

Red Corner

Tom Nolan

Blue Corner

+285

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-360

(78%)

1502

Elo

1562

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'3"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikolas Motta

oldest →

KOvs Jim Miller · Feb 22

KOvs Cameron VanCamp · Sep 22

KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 23

vs Maheshate · Nov 24

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Jun 25

latest

Tom NolanW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Victor Martinez · May 24

vs Alex Reyes · Aug 24

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Feb 25

SUBvs Charlie Campbell · Sep 25

DECvs Fares Ziam · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikolas MottaMetricTom Nolan

4.13

Strikes / min

5.87

5.28

Strikes absorbed / min

4.73

52%

Strike defense

48%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.74

83%

Takedown defense

71%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.15Δ 2.29 — meaningful gap+1.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nikolas MottaTom Nolan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nikolas Motta(6 fights)Tom Nolan(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -59.4|Blue +59.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikolas MottaTargetTom Nolan

By target zone

54% acc · 90%

Head

38% acc · 42%

40% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 42%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

42% acc · 38%

Distance

61% acc · 92%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

65% acc · 62%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nikolas Motta rounds

even

Tom Nolan rounds

Round 1Nikolas Motta edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:09

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 40

Sig Strikes

12 / 20

52%

Sig Str %

60%

21 / 40

Total Strikes

12 / 20

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Nolan	12 / 20	12 / 20	0 / 0	0
1	Nikolas Motta	21 / 40	21 / 40	0 / 0	0

Nikolas Motta

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Tom Nolan

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6