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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Nikolas Motta won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1502
Nikolas Motta
Elo1435

Nikolas MottavsCameron VanCampUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Saturday, September 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nikolas Motta won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:49

Style matchupNikolas Motta: Pressure fightervsCameron VanCamp: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Cameron VanCamp wins(66.9%)

Actual result: Nikolas Motta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cameron VanCamp at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Nikolas Motta is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Cameron VanCamp has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Nikolas Motta has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Nikolas Motta has 83pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Cameron VanCamp (52.9%).
  • Cameron VanCamp has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nikolas Motta
Red Corner
VS
Cameron VanCamp
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1502
Elo
1435
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
6'2"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikolas Motta
oldest →
L
KOvs Jim Miller · Feb 22
L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 23
W
KOvs Tom Nolan · Jan 24
W
vs Maheshate · Nov 24
L
KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Jun 25
latest
Cameron VanCamp
oldest →
L
KOvs Andre Fialho · May 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikolas MottaMetricCameron VanCamp
4.13
Strikes / min
5.31
5.28
Strikes absorbed / min
6.41
52%
Strike defense
40%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
83%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.15evenly matched on net striking-1.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1483 vs 1482Strikes3.1 vs 5.3Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Nikolas MottaCameron VanCamp

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Nikolas Motta(6 fights)Cameron VanCamp(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +67.5|Blue -67.5
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikolas MottaTargetCameron VanCamp

By target zone

22
54% acc · 92%
Head
7
27% acc · 47%
1
33% acc · 4%
Body
4
40% acc · 27%
1
100% acc · 4%
Leg
4
100% acc · 27%

By position

15
43% acc · 63%
Distance
15
38% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
9
90% acc · 38%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Nikolas Motta rounds
0
even
0
Cameron VanCamp rounds
Round 1Nikolas Motta edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns1
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
24 / 45
Sig Strikes
15 / 40
53%
Sig Str %
37%
24 / 45
Total Strikes
15 / 40
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cameron VanCamp15 / 4015 / 400 / 00
1Nikolas Motta24 / 4524 / 450 / 00

Nikolas Motta

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6

Cameron VanCamp

StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2