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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Phil Rowe won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1445

Elo1484

Niko PricevsPhil RoweUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Saturday, December 3, 2022Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Phil Rowe won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:26

Style matchupNiko Price: Pressure fightervsPhil Rowe: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Phil Rowe wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Phil Rowe wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Rowe at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Niko Price enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Phil Rowe is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Niko Price has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Phil Rowe has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Niko Price

Red Corner

Phil Rowe

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1445

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Niko PriceL4 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jun 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24

SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Mar 26

latest

Phil RoweL2 streak

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Jun 23

vs Jake Matthews · Jun 24

KOvs Ange Loosa · Jun 25

vs Seokhyeon Ko · Nov 25

vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Niko PriceMetricPhil Rowe

5.11

Strikes / min

3.51

5.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.15

48%

Strike defense

50%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

0.46

50%

Takedown defense

53%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Niko PricePhil Rowe

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Niko Price(10 fights)Phil Rowe(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -38.8|Blue +38.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Niko PriceTargetPhil Rowe

By target zone

34% acc · 60%

Head

40% acc · 78%

73% acc · 15%

Body

88% acc · 11%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

88% acc · 11%

By position

40% acc · 80%

Distance

44% acc · 90%

67% acc · 13%

Clinch

86% acc · 10%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Niko Price rounds

even

Phil Rowe rounds

Round 1Niko Price edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:09

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Niko Price edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:22

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:28Control

Round 3Niko Price edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:58

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

110 / 247

Sig Strikes

63 / 139

45%

Sig Str %

45%

150 / 293

Total Strikes

64 / 140

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:29

Ctrl Time

1:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Phil Rowe	20 / 53	20 / 53	0 / 0	0
1	Niko Price	34 / 87	36 / 89	0 / 0	0
2	Phil Rowe	17 / 40	18 / 41	1 / 1	2
2	Niko Price	34 / 85	46 / 101	0 / 2	0
3	Phil Rowe	26 / 46	26 / 46	0 / 1	0
3	Niko Price	42 / 75	68 / 103	0 / 0	0

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Phil Rowe

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8