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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michel Pereira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1445

Elo1492

Niko PricevsMichel PereiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Saturday, July 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michel Pereira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNiko Price: Pressure fightervsMichel Pereira: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Michel Pereira wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Michel Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Pereira at -186 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Niko Price enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Michel Pereira has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Niko Price

Red Corner

Michel Pereira

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-186

(65%)

1445

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Niko PriceL4 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jun 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24

SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Mar 26

latest

Michel Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Oct 24

vs Abus Magomedov · Apr 25

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Aug 25

vs Zach Reese · Feb 26

DECvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Niko PriceMetricMichel Pereira

5.11

Strikes / min

4.46

5.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

48%

Strike defense

51%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

1.21

50%

Takedown defense

75%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Niko PriceMichel Pereira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Niko Price(10 fights)Michel Pereira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -47.1|Blue +47.1

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +224.0|Blue -224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Niko PriceTargetMichel Pereira

By target zone

31% acc · 53%

Head

49% acc · 57%

61% acc · 18%

Body

81% acc · 37%

81% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

40% acc · 86%

Distance

55% acc · 70%

64% acc · 12%

Clinch

90% acc · 20%

67% acc · 3%

Ground

56% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Niko Price rounds

even

Michel Pereira rounds

Round 1Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:47

27Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:50

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:12Control

Round 3Niko Price edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:35

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 180

Sig Strikes

92 / 154

40.7%

Sig Str %

60.7%

120 / 229

Total Strikes

115 / 180

0 / 2

TDs

3 / 6

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:12

Ctrl Time

2:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michel Pereira	27 / 39	37 / 49	2 / 2	0
1	Niko Price	10 / 30	26 / 50	0 / 1	0
2	Michel Pereira	32 / 52	41 / 64	1 / 1	2
2	Niko Price	19 / 40	32 / 53	0 / 1	1
3	Michel Pereira	33 / 63	37 / 67	0 / 3	0
3	Niko Price	47 / 110	62 / 126	0 / 0	0

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Michel Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16