← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Niko Price won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1445

Elo1377

Niko PricevsJames VickUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Saturday, October 12, 2019Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Niko Price won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:44

Style matchupNiko Price: Pressure fightervsJames Vick: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: James Vick wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Niko Price wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Vick at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Niko Price enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
James Vick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Niko Price is a KO finisher (50% of wins). James Vick has lost 80% of fights by KO.
James Vick has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Niko Price

Red Corner

James Vick

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1445

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Niko PriceL4 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jun 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24

SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Mar 26

latest

James VickL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Duffy · Nov 17

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 18

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Aug 18

vs Paul Felder · Feb 19

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Niko PriceMetricJames Vick

5.11

Strikes / min

4.13

5.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

48%

Strike defense

60%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

0.26

50%

Takedown defense

57%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Niko PriceJames Vick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Niko Price(10 fights)James Vick(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +68.1|Blue -68.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Niko PriceTargetJames Vick

By target zone

48% acc · 91%

Head

40% acc · 67%

Body

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 22%

By position

22% acc · 18%

Distance

45% acc · 56%

Clinch

69% acc · 82%

Ground

57% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Niko Price rounds

even

James Vick rounds

Round 1Niko Price edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:46

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 22

Sig Strikes

9 / 18

50%

Sig Str %

50%

15 / 28

Total Strikes

10 / 19

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	James Vick	9 / 18	10 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Niko Price	11 / 22	15 / 28	0 / 1	0

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

James Vick

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14