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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jacobe Smith won · SUB R2

Elo1445

Elo1546

Niko PricevsJacobe SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Saturday, June 28, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jacobe Smith won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:03

Style matchupNiko Price: Pressure fightervsJacobe Smith: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jacobe Smith wins(85.7%)

Actual result: Jacobe Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacobe Smith at -2200 American odds

+$5 profit

$105 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Niko Price enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jacobe Smith is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Niko Price has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Jacobe Smith has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jacobe Smith (53.5%).
Niko Price has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Niko Price

Red Corner

Jacobe Smith

Blue Corner

+1100

(8%)

Vegas Odds

-2200

(96%)

1445

Elo

1546

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Niko PriceL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 23

vs Alex Morono · Jun 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Mar 26

latest

Jacobe SmithW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Preston Parsons · Jan 25

KOvs Josiah Harrell · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Niko PriceMetricJacobe Smith

5.11

Strikes / min

6.89

5.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.78

48%

Strike defense

47%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

7.78

50%

Takedown defense

100%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46Δ 4.57 — meaningful gap+4.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Niko PriceJacobe Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Niko Price(10 fights)Jacobe Smith(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -100.7|Blue +100.7

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Niko PriceTargetJacobe Smith

By target zone

44% acc · 56%

Head

59% acc · 85%

57% acc · 12%

Body

80% acc · 9%

100% acc · 32%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

55% acc · 79%

Distance

54% acc · 48%

75% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

50% acc · 12%

Ground

71% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Niko Price rounds

even

Jacobe Smith rounds

Round 1Jacobe Smith edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:06Control

Round 2Jacobe Smith edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 61

Sig Strikes

46 / 74

56.5%

Sig Str %

61.5%

46 / 76

Total Strikes

73 / 101

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 2

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jacobe Smith	33 / 53	46 / 66	1 / 1	0
1	Niko Price	19 / 37	23 / 42	0 / 2	0
2	Jacobe Smith	13 / 21	27 / 35	1 / 1	1
2	Niko Price	15 / 24	23 / 34	0 / 0	0

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Jacobe Smith

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3