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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Niko Price won · SUB R2

Elo1445

Elo1367

Niko PricevsGeorge SullivanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · Saturday, January 27, 2018Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Niko Price won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:21

Style matchupNiko Price: Pressure fightervsGeorge Sullivan: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: George Sullivan wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Niko Price wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

George Sullivan at +305 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Niko Price enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Niko Price

Red Corner

George Sullivan

Blue Corner

-365

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+305

(25%)

1445

Elo

1367

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Niko PriceL4 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jun 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24

SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Mar 26

latest

George SullivanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Igor Araujo · Sep 14

SUBvs Tim Means · Apr 15

vs Dominic Waters · Jul 15

KOvs Alexander Yakovlev · Jan 16

SUBvs Mickey Gall · Aug 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Niko PriceMetricGeorge Sullivan

5.11

Strikes / min

3.53

5.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.42

48%

Strike defense

57%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

1.37

50%

Takedown defense

38%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46Δ 1.57 — meaningful gap+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Niko PriceGeorge Sullivan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Niko Price(10 fights)George Sullivan(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +77.8|Blue -77.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -637.0|Blue +637.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Niko PriceTargetGeorge Sullivan

By target zone

38% acc · 54%

Head

28% acc · 71%

78% acc · 29%

Body

75% acc · 14%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

75% acc · 14%

By position

41% acc · 46%

Distance

19% acc · 33%

54% acc · 29%

Clinch

80% acc · 19%

86% acc · 25%

Ground

53% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Niko Price rounds

even

George Sullivan rounds

Round 1Niko Price edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:14

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2George Sullivan edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:43

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:33Control

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 47

Sig Strikes

21 / 61

50.5%

Sig Str %

34%

35 / 67

Total Strikes

42 / 88

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 6

62.5%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:57

Ctrl Time

3:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	George Sullivan	7 / 31	19 / 44	0 / 5	0
1	Niko Price	10 / 22	10 / 24	1 / 4	2
2	George Sullivan	14 / 30	23 / 44	1 / 1	0
2	Niko Price	14 / 25	25 / 43	1 / 1	1

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

George Sullivan

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7