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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jared Gooden won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1426
Elo1495
Jared Gooden

Niklas StolzevsJared GoodenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland · Saturday, July 31, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jared Gooden won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:08

Model Prediction: Jared Gooden wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Jared Gooden wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Gooden at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jared Gooden threatens submissions; Niklas Stolze has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Niklas Stolze (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Niklas Stolze
Red Corner
VS
Jared Gooden
Blue Corner
-180
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
1426
Elo
1495
33
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Niklas StolzeL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Ramazan Emeev · Jul 20
L
SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jun 22
latest
Jared Gooden
oldest →
L
vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov · Mar 21
L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 21
L
vs Carlston Harris · Mar 23
W
SUBvs Wellington Turman · Dec 23
L
vs Chidi Njokuani · Oct 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Niklas StolzeMetricJared Gooden
2.12
Strikes / min
4.40
2.25
Strikes absorbed / min
6.74
49%
Strike defense
45%
0.66
TDs / 15 min
0.91
55%
Takedown defense
65%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.13Δ 2.21 — meaningful gap-2.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1483 vs 1464Strikes2.3 vs 5.0Takedowns0.9 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Niklas StolzeJared Gooden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Niklas Stolze(3 fights)Jared Gooden(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -69.6|Blue +69.6
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +245.0|Blue -245.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Niklas StolzeTargetJared Gooden

By target zone

4
40% acc · 57%
Head
11
65% acc · 79%
2
100% acc · 29%
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 14%
Leg
3
100% acc · 21%

By position

7
54% acc · 100%
Distance
13
62% acc · 93%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Niklas Stolze rounds
0
even
1
Jared Gooden rounds
Round 1Jared Gooden edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:21Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
7 / 13
Sig Strikes
14 / 23
53%
Sig Str %
60%
7 / 13
Total Strikes
14 / 23
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:21

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jared Gooden14 / 2314 / 231 / 10
1Niklas Stolze7 / 137 / 130 / 00

Niklas Stolze

StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3

Jared Gooden

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights7